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Odds of a hundo in raids

Have over 1200 legendary raids, seen 3 hundoes, caught 2 of them, moltres and mewtwo, lost an entei a long time ago.

Whats the odds of encountering a hundo lvl 5?
Mine has been 1:400 so far. Is there a statistics for this somewhere?

Regards

Asked by Chimera19023 years 5 months ago
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Answers

For raids, egg hatches, and research tasks, it's 1 in 216.

Basically calculated from the fact that there are 6 IV possibilities from each stat (10-15), so 6 x 6 x 6.

For comparison, wild spawns (non-weather boosted) are 1 in 4096. We're working with the full IV range here, 0-15.

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Your assumption is that each stat and each number has equal probability to be drawn. While I don't know if it's true, but personally I doubt it.

Formally you can do a hypothesis testing, with null hypothesis being, say, rate of hundo from legendary raid is 1 out 216. But only based on one player's experience may not give very confident result.

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Without looking at whatever is used for determining IV's of a raid boss in the catch screen, I'd be surprised if some part of the number generation favored particular stat spreads over another. I think for all intents and purposes it's safe to say you're as likely to roll a hundo as you are a 12/14/13, 13/10/11, 10/10/10, or any other IV combination where each stat is between 10-15.

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"Your assumption is that each stat and each number has equal probability to be drawn. While I don't know if it's true, but personally I doubt it."

People at the sylph road and other research sites have looked at this question, and have come to the conclusion that the statistics are linearly distributed within the specified range to within statistical error, every time. Individual results may vary, but take a huge data sample, and one finds that it's simple linear probabilities.

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I have about 2 of 500. First was Zapdos in his own raid day, second Kyogre month ago.

Bad RNG, however i caught 3 shiny Zigzagoon in lat 2 weeks.

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Since your original question was already answered we might as well share what other odds are:

Weather boosted hundo (IV floor of 4): 1:1728

Good friends trade (IV floor of 1): 1:3375
Great friends trade (IV floor of 2): 1:2744
Ultra friends trade (IV floor of 3): 1: 2197
Best friends trade (IV floor of 5): 1:1331
Lucky trade (IV floor of 12(!)): 1:64

While it's still not in your favor much, the trading odds increase significantly from good to best. Having said that I've yet to roll a lucky hundo despite rolling a non-lucky hundo from a best friend trade.

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Hmmm. I’ve seen one in over 1700

And my ‘best’ friend that I trade most often with has gotten 5 hundos from my out of maybe 300 trades or so

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My one hundo is a weather-boosted Magikarp.

And really ... that's the best hundo.

( is now a hundo Gyarados, natch )

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by hkn 3 years 5 months ago

268 legendary raids won, got a perfect Mewtwo and a perfect Groudon.

Still dreaming about a perfect shiny Magikarp.

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