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Theater II Betting Episode 2: C-AAAAAH

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Day 1 After Action Report

WHAT THE HELL!!?
Fuck me.
HAHAHA
Was C meme'd enough that people avoided it cause people thought "hohohoho, people going to C, imma vote B"

Unfortunately, Paragon, this means you must snap Ceia back into existence. 

No, leave me be. If I am brought back I will influence the results.

Okay. We will leave you.

Did we post too much propaganda?
It is honestly hard to tell.
Let's keep going and see what happens.

WHAT THE EVER LOVING FUCK...

C-AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
EN has crushed my bones into a fine powder.
At least you are providing the daily dose of calcium for EN.

WHAT..

WHAT.....

W H A T!......

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

EN. 

IT WASN'T SUPPOSED TO WORK LIKE THIS. 

YOU WEREN'T SUPPOSED TO TAKE US SERIOUSLY.

 

ばかみたい :Redacted:

Английский? (English?)

Baka Mitai. It's "Wanna See an idiot."..which going by the result...is completely appropriate.
Well, shit. I think I way overestimated the amount of people who would forget how theater works/super new players who weren’t around for last theater. That didn’t go well.
Need to rethink our strategy.
Yeah, that was stupid on our part. Then again, Brainlet Panel, so. It is appropriate. But it is obvious a large majority would've been playing before Theater I.
I feel like there is a very simple explanation here. Such as "EN remembered that A lost on Day 1, so they avoided A, and B was regarded as the "Safe Vote" for all of Theater I. Calling it now, that based on both Theater I and II, there is a C will lose on Day I, Theater III.
Desti, problem. Theater 3 will destroy most of the EN players. It is a new Theater, with more difficult enemies.

Take a good look at the CT and Isomer participation rate, does it look like there's anything left of EN to destroy? Even Matt's scuffed as hell, NO KCCO - NO SF, NORMAL RUN FOUND ITSELF AT TOP 20%.

Good mor.....WHAT....Oh for fucks sake. THEY TOOK US SERIOUSLY?
If you want to put it that way, sure.
I think I need a drink before I break this down.
Want some Jack?
EN and I both need a Gut Punch :5head:

The Numbers...What Do They Mean?

Let's break this down. 

Some key notes I want to drop.

  • There are about 600 more Commanders (compared to Day One, Theater I) 
  • In EN, C never dropped below 30% (In Theater I. The only time it got close was Day 17, when it got to 30% won)
  • Almost one thousand less drones were sent to C on Day One, versus in Theater I
  • TWO AND A HALF THOUSAND MORE DRONES WERE SENT TO B......THAN IN THEATER I
  • More than half of the CBT submissions reported Commanders Rushing B
If we take the CBT players into account, and disperse their votes randomly, so that CBT votes account for 33% across the board, C would still have won, but A would be the big loser instead. While there is no real proof that this metric is valid, or that it works, and I am sure someone in the comments section will probably scold me for suggesting that we play hypothetical games with data...it is something. I want to say that the CBT players flocking to B may have definitely helped the C win.

That said, a C win this early is unheard of. EN is the first server, per available Data, to have a C win on Day 1. Being a very early win, I would not be shocked if EN does in fact become the first server to have multiple C wins by the time this Theater ends.

I am sure Hokor, EN's Discord intern-kun, who claims to have used EN Theater Data to actually place in the third percentile in CN is staring at us going ":OhYou'reEN:" 

For anyone wondering how I know this, I manage Theater Data Charts. 

Theater I

Theater II

Give them a look over if you would like. 

I am also not happy with the curveball...but you cannot fool me twice.

Although, I do not like the curveball EN threw this time. 

In a way, this is truly Newtonianism at its finest. In Theater One, EN had a reaction to Vote C propaganda. This time, EN is having an equal and opposite reaction. It makes me wonder if Ceia knew what he was up too when he started this trend..if Ceia was just playing the long con.
EN is LEARNING?

Day 2 Discussion

It should be a :Redacted: win Day 2.
I agree.
Unless EN shuns :Redacted: like the plague.
That or they let :Redacted: win again, or they do the TW and let C win twice in a row.

Here are my predictions.

 

30% chance of :Redacted: winning

50% chance of :Redacted: winning

20% chance of :Redacted: winning

I am voting :Redacted: for Day 2.

I will hold off on giving EN the "Adapted to Theater Card" for now.
It could be pure coincidence. Next thing you know, everything descends into chaos again.
That is true. That is why I will delay judgment for a week.
Why do I have this gut feeling that Spectral Ceia is actually right for once and giving reasonable ENsight this panel?
It is probably just the Gut Punch you had.
I feel like a moron for not even considering the influence of streamers and larger names posting Vote C memes or warning players about C. Even so, I'm willing to risk B under the assumption that more players will flock to C due to its victory in the previous round.
Alright. I am done trying to think rationally about scouting. I am getting my brother to do it for me. Ugh. The 1st damn day. C-hads are too strong.
Anyways, taking into account the fact that EN is already not believing in :Redacted: and the vote distribution on GFC's survey is heavily skewed in this panel's thinking They're gonna flock to voting B again But some will feel burned by the fact that B lost, but are still disillusioned of :Redacted: so in the end this was just an excuse for me to finally jump onto the C train No thoughts Head empty Vote C
I am not sure honestly. I think you will see a lot of people flock to :Redacted: now. Remember how C got close to winning so many times, and EN flocked to it? 53% or something like that.
By the way, Dahblount, how do you like your eggs, if you like them at all?
Over-easy or omelet usually, but sometimes I'll do a scrambled egg sandwich. Why?
You're the closest thing to a Chef this panel has. I usually like scrambled or soft-boiled.
WA-2000...chef....two things I never want to hear in a sentence.

Results

The results are in! Let us see how long this section of the episode gets to be today!
Day 2 Predictions
Who You Vote C Why no vote c
kirahuang B t
DiggusDBickus A I, DiggusDBickus, humbly submit, a toast, to the whole EN community, for successfully managing to CChair in the first day, so that they may break all laws of theater voting. Congratulations, EN. Enjoy your CChair.*sip* *lip smack* ah.
Ceia A Let's see whether EN will defy expectations again.
Destination C "ENlets! Scattered formation! Brainlets, we're outnumbered 3 to 1!""Then it is an even fight. All drones, scout Gates Of Hell! Burn their EN hides!"
Arkeyy B https://pastebin.com/0XsZADf6
DrParagon A C won, C is likely going to get a lot of votes now and then B is still going to get more votes than A because "hur dur more points woo"Anyway here's wonderwall,Today is gonna be the dayThat they're gonna throw it back to youBy now you should've somehowRealized what you gotta doI don't believe that anybodyFeels the way I do, about you nowBackbeat, the word was on the streetThat the fire in your heart is outI'm sure you've heard it all beforeBut you never really had a doubtI don't believe that anybodyFeels the way I do about you nowAnd all the roads we have to walk are windingAnd all the lights that lead us there are blindingThere are many things that IWould like to say to you but I don't know howBecause maybe, you're gonna be the one that saves meAnd after all, you're my wonderwallToday was gonna be the dayBut they'll never throw it back to youBy now you should've somehowRealized what you're not to doI don't believe that anybodyFeels the way I do, about you nowAnd all the roads that lead you there are windingAnd all the lights that light the way are blindingThere are many things that IWould like to say to you but I don't know howI said maybe, you're gonna be the one that saves meAnd after all, you're my wonderwallI said maybe, you're gonna be the one that saves meAnd after all, you're my wonderwallI said maybe, you're gonna be the one that saves meyou're gonna be the one that saves meyou're gonna be the one that saves me
Duck A Most B voters will either jump ship to C or stay on B expecting results to not repeat themselves, while C voters will probably stay on the C chair until it becomes a C coffin. A has a good chance of being ignored, and can pull off a win today.
BLT B T
maybe A https://pastebin.com/N8PLB8Ys
DahBlount B ばかみたい...I see that EN learned... something from last Theater. In the end, it doesn't matter, as they will likely still fall prey to the mass hysteria of Newtonianism. Let me stay in B-ed, I will return to tradition later.
lego B because im testing a very secret strategy
DukeDisaster B Refer to panel for day 2
Coin A Option 4 in the Coinflip's Guide to Coinflipping.Honestly I'll start to be able to analyze today's data better but for now, listen. I was trying to be a bit smart with it, but it LOOKS like all the vote C shit turned people away. So they didn't, and I guess people saw B as the safe vote? Alright listen. Gimme 3 days to figure this out.
Matt C You know what. Fuck it for C
Hassium C Oh god I'm unironically voting C
Maybe...Arkeyy... your shitposts were so long that there is a literal scrollbar in the damn cell. New rule. No more than 2000 characters in any one given shitpost. It is about the length of a Discord message.

Propoganda Time!

Today on Propaganda Time, we have a promotional poster created by GaigeDaMech!
We also have a message from an audience member, which, while not propaganda, still worth.
"OH GOD I FORGOT TO WAIT UNTIL THE PANEL POSTED THEIR RESULT BECAUSE NOW MY 1 DRONE ON B IS SCREWED!"

Closing Remarks

It appears as if the Panel - by a narrow margin - predicts an A victory for the second day of Theater II!

Don't forget to make sure you do both runs, send all available drones, and make sure you do your daily CBT submission! 

Don't forget to also send me your propaganda on Twitter (@GandKTV) or on Discord (MatthewStarbuck#0187, probably nicknamed Vote C Fairy, and it might be featured in the panel!

Omake

Omake
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About the Author(s)

Host of the Theater Betting :OhImEn: Panel :5head:

EN Theater Chart manager

Theater I


Theater II

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