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Theater Betting Episode 8: Quest Start

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Day 7 Postmortem

Does this mean our accuracy is coming back?

Our accuracy is based on 100% OJ simulations. 

There were people who stayed up just to see our results so they know what to avoid. 

I cleaned up the coffee and found out that Ceia voted A yesterday. 

Since A won, does that mean the curse wasn't real? 

It just proves that removing Ceia from the equation has achieved the desirable result. 

Give us the stones!

Tell you what, I'll give you one stone each time either I or the panel majority guesses the outcome correctly. 

Deal. 

I'm at 5 wins 2 neutral so far, so just vote with me and we'll have Ceia back in no time. 

C winning? Not today!

I knew I should've picked A. EN outplayed themselves. 

I'm thinking that A could go on a win stream, but I've seen a lot of people say they will vote for A. 

I don't know how non-Reddit/Discord community players would vote though. 

I'm not sure if I'm retarded or if EN is retarded for not choosing the way I want them to. 

Let's take a look at our week 1 performance!

Note: "vs. Facilities" is the net investigation gain/loss compared to investing in infrastructure (30 points/10 material). 

We're all positive in points by now, though some of us did better than others. 

Didn't Ceia vote B on day 6?

He publicly voted A, he doesn't deserve the extra points earned from backstabbing us. 

About 1/3 of EN nuked their materials stockpile the day before and didn't have enough for voting, because our vote totals dropped from 970k to 786k. 

It's equivalent losing almost 1/3 of votes, if you adjust the numbers by max drone count. 

I technically "won" because I picked the right zone, but this is a victory that tastes like defeat. 

RIP my perfect loss streak. 

I'll turn anyone who guesses wrong into 5 cores. 

I don't turn into cores though. 

Just guess right and don't doubt me again then. 

Day 8 Bet Brainstorming

This distribution looks familiar...

Maybe you actually can't predict Theater and this is just completely luck-based. 

Or maybe that one guy who got 14/14 points is a time traveler. 

Good thing they're using it on GFL and not the lottery then. 

We're doing pretty well percentage-wise, does that mean we're recovering? 

Let's see how well we do today before we make any conclusions. 

What are we doing about Ceia's empty spot in the meantime? 

Let's use an ouija board. I'll go grab a cultist. 

That graph looks like the Paradeus faction symbol. 

The left side looks like a mess, just like EN's voting habits. 

Remember that EN lost a lot of votes due to Core 1 not giving enough materials to send max drones.

Wonder if that's correlated with which option they chose?

I'm a little miffed that my perfect losing streak has been ruined, but this means corsage can't use my vote to determine what not to vote for anymore. 

Neither can EN. 

Take that, readers who doubt our accuracy!

I don't know whom I hate more now, Ceia or Whim. 

Why not both? 

You're right. 

I'm pretty sure most of EN doesn't read this anyway. A lot of our readers actually come from regions that don't use the GFL Global server. 

I saw some KR readers laughing at this column after seeing Fury's Theater guide video, because EN's doing so poorly in Theater that somehow a meme video maker like you have been forced to make serious guides. 

I feel like I'll get blamed by my subscribers because I linked Ceia's video which told them to vote C. 

You're a meme video creator, if people die horribly for following your advice, that's their own fault generally. 

It's like taking a PD Negev video as a guide. "All you have to do is beat the 250k gundam swarm with only HGs and you're fine lol. What, you cant do that? even weaklings can lol."

Then they die and people wonder "wtf", not realizing its a meme done by a really skilled player.

What do you think about the voting results? 

I tuned into Watame stream just in time to watch her fall off a cliff in the game she was playing.

I guess its a sign of how the voting went, and it bodes well for today's voting result. 

That's not reassuring at all!

The obvious choice is to go A, but I wonder if there would be too many people going A, especially the randos not in Discord/Reddit.

That said, the obvious choice yesterday was to go A and surprisingly few people went A :ribdieinside:

People don't trust A anymore, not after being backstabbed twice by A. 

Good, let the AAAApocalypse come again. 

I need to work my brain on what to vote, but I feel like Aqua right now

:NotLikeIfrit:

I asked another animal person and they said A, so this is my vote today. Because this totally did not involve animal crossing. Honest.

I just voted too.

You didn't betray the C Chair, did you?

...

everyone betraying the C chair

fuck whim

he caused the flight of the C chads

There's nothing left of us. 

Hey no, I was technically not part of the C chair. My random methods of decision just kept saying C.

This time I asked a little bird, and she said A.

Im totally not just testing animal crossing instead of orange juice as a method, I swear

FOR REAL THIS TIME

Blame not me, but instead blame fell circumstance! Blame the blade that is random chance! Blame the.... fuck I forgot how the rest went

C hardly ever wins anyway, people just pick it hoping for neutral 50. 

I can feel it C bros, C is gonna win this time. 

Now you've gone and jinxed it. 

Whim it's too late, the C brotherhood rejects your proposal of reentry. 

Since Kazuki isn't back with an Ouija board yet, I'll just find a substitute. 

Day 8 Bets

Why do some parts of the voting results look like Japanese adult video?

Don't worry about it.

Your substitute is useless!

Hey, she's not useless, she gave me 8% more points for some Theater runs. 

Not my fault she does 1 damage to armored units. 

At this point, I think we've long given up on actually predicting. 

At first, we were rationally trying to deduce choices based on some form of internal logic. Now we've gone to asking Vtubers, playing 100% Orange Juice, and kidnapping cultists. 

We have somehow gotten MORE accurate with those methods.

EN is chaos theory, so using truly chaotic choices produces results. Probably.

Originally we also decided to see in 1 round for CS:GO if we win and plant at A/B.

The answer is obviously to rush B, duh.

The cultist I found caved really fast and picked C, screw voting for that though. 

I might reconsider this method of voting if C does actually win though. 

Since A either wins hard or loses hard, and there's no way it loses hard tomorrow, I'm taking my free 60 points. 

I hope so, I don't want to lose twice in a row

:mg4cry:

The fact that B went up means EN isn't that brainless after all, so they must have collectively figured out how Theater scouting works.

But even if that were true, there are two possibilities:

  • A is going to get 40% again
  • People will think A will get 40% again and therefore not vote A

I'm just going to :Cchair:

You're deliberately trying to lose so we don't get Ceia back, aren't you?

I'm like, a solid 10/10 on the EN scale right now, and I picked B. 

That means B will get tons of votes, so B is dead. 

A probably will not get proportionally more votes than C because there's a huge gap. 

There's also a looooooot of people that are stuck with C because if C wins once it will pay off really hard, so they're never letting it go.

Any tips, advice, and memorable things to mention for Core/Centrum zone? I may just make a video to complete the guide. 

I know that we should focus on HOC/Fairy facilities, but what else? 

1. Level your Taunt Fairy's skill, it's about time. 

2. Just let Yuko's guide handhold you to victory. It's honestly not nearly as hard as people make it sound. 

Since corsage and kwespell both voted C and their track record is pretty good, I guess C winning isn't outside the realm of possibility. 

...Especially when we consider that this is EN. 

If C wins, that cultist was right and I may owe him an apology.

Don't get others on it, I wanna be alone with the C andies.

 

C is either the epic win or epic throw selection

(it's the epic throw one)

I wish 40% of EN didn't always hope that C will pull an epic win.

:NGA5:

In all seriousness, I'm predicting either A < C < B or B < A < C tomorrow.

A majority of panelists voted A this time. Will we finally break the 50% guess rate barrier again, or are we cursed to always get the result wrong?

Remember to send all 78 drones available today to your zone of choice (which may or may not be the same as what we picked), and do your Core clears! Core 3 isn't hard at all. 

For endgame players that just want to maximize their points, each day after the ceasefire, you can always find the TL;DR on what zones are optimal to do for that day at the start of the Theater Guide!

Oh, and don't forget to submit the CBT form every day when you investigate in-game!

Omake

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About the Author(s)

(AKA Nonotan, Discord Cleista#7481)

Guide writer and editor for Girls' Frontline, and one of the few people who like its gameplay more than the gacha. Got MICA to pay me 8000 gems once. 

Send guide suggestions and ideas via DM on Discord, or drop some in the #gf_site_suggestions channel on the Community Discord

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