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Theater Betting Episode 6: Exile

You can now hover over the chibis to see who is speaking! Sorry about not adding this earlier.

Day 5 Postmortem

Nice, my bluff worked. 

OJ sim got B and C backwards, but A did win. 

When 100% OJ accidentally became a time machine, what have we done? 

OJ is now property of the US government for being a time machine.

I hope SERN doesn't end up shutting down this panel.

We need to use OJ to warn ourselves in the past then. 

El Psy Congroo

I wish we could, but it looks like OJ can only send back one bit of information in addition to the winner. 

Too bad, guess we can't warn our past selves to never trust Ceia.

I'm pretty sure A is gonna win again. 

I'm sticking full B though, I gave up on theater. 

C ain't going to win. I found EN's source code: 

If B

    then Lose

    else "A Win"

Where is C in the equation?

I don't think EN C it. For it to B like this such that 4 A wins.

The Chinese data lied to us, it didn't account for EN being retarded.

You're fired.

If A was gonna win, I expected at least the margins to be a lot more closer, but not for the gap to get even wider.

I'm just happy it wasn't another day of "C got more than A and B combined again".

For any readers that haven't done Advanced 8 yet, please check out k4's clear video below!

It might help you out if you reference it in addition to the Theater Teambuilding Guide

If you can’t do like the current stage of a battle (say Advanced Map 8) and it’s too difficult, you can also do an easier Advanced map and score points or contribute that way.

The only drawback is that it will give less progression compared to fighting something say, Map 8, and you get the -40% score penalty (which only applies in Phase 1 and the first seven stages of Core Zone - Core 8 has no penalty). 

It'll be a whole lot better than a failed run on Advanced 8. 

Day 6 Bet Brainstorming

Now that stats are actually kinda starting to make sense, maybe we should attempt to seriously guess again. 

I'm waiting for Tsunomaki Watame to vote for me.

I didn't know you followed VTubers. 

Ahahahaha... some parts of Matsuda staff are uh.... Involved... with translating some of them.

So you guys are responsible for the meteoric rise of VTuber fans!

Look, we just livetranslate Suisei!

And sometimes Coco.

What's it like watching the two of them?

"Here's a Shin Takarajima compilation."

...how old are you again?

17. Teehee~

Except when I'm filling insurance forms.

Must be nice being young forever. 

I got an A on my exams today, so you guys know what I'm going for. 

There goes A. Let's pay respect for the fallen.

I'm having trouble deciding which to go for. 

I want to say the safe non-A bet might be B, but it's also got a huge chance of losing. 

I think this is the time people start to double-triple think and outplay themselves. 

I feel that if players flooded the winner (A) they would've done that yesterday.

Since they didn't and A percentage went down, it's possible that most of EN still has PTSD from that day 1 A loss and will continue to avoid A. 

Surely A can't win 5 times in a row. It has never happened in GFL histor-

It did tho

Welp, guess I didn't look at the data closely enough. 

If this is the case, knowing EN it will be A penta despite Ceia voting for it. 

EN data so far showed us that A is an extremely safe pick at this point. 

If i have any influence at all, A will shoot up and end up losing. 

I think today is the tipping point where no one trusts you anymore. 

Everyone's gonna avoid A, thereby resulting in A winning. 

We shall see.

C is a no brain choice, so it can't possibly win. 

I'll just roll the dice or wait for Kyazuki to post his OJ sims. 

The letter of the day is "A", as in "The astonishment on all the dalaos' faces when B wins after A winning 4 days in a row".

That said, I'm going with A because it couldn't possibly win 5 days in a row right???

:mg4cry:

So far the last day in EN theater analogous to today is day 3. 

If I copypaste the day 3 -> 4 delta onto the 5 -> 6 range and adjust it proportional to the B - A score difference, I get this. 

This means A quint

:honkshake:

I guess you have to eventually get one of these days right. 

Though I wouldn't be surprised if A defies all expectations and goes down again. 

:springconcerned:

Day 6 Bets

If everyone hopped on the A train despite knowing that I'm voting for A, maybe A actually will win a fifth time. 

It's gonna happen. 

Knowing EN, they'll be too scared to choose A and cause it to win. 

I already have tomorrow's banner ready. 

Whim not picking C on the one day C would be most likely to win thus far.

He abandoned the C Chair.

fukin traitor

u deserve nothing bitch

the C council sentences whim to death on the grounds of treason

At least I'm not gonna lose this time. 

True, I would rather be a traitor and a winner than a C Chair and a loser. 

corsage confirmed man of culture

Dude, there are people in my comments who are like

why is my C vote not working

Seriously though corsage, how far back do you think most players consider the results?

Players who don't refer to guides or are members of any community probably only look back 2 days at the most. 

They're only reminded that A won multiple times in a row because it's happened so many times, not because they actually scroll down on the scouting results page.

I'mma be honest, despite being here I've literally not used any information or previous days to base my decisions (or even previous Theater events). 

....despite playing in 4 Theaters now.

Those who actively participate (or lurk) in scouting-related discourse probably know what all of the previous results are, either by paying attention or being reminded by people like Ceia screaming "A QUINTS".

Knowing vs. actually using it as part of their [un]informed decision though, that's not so easy to call right?

I don't know; from what I've seen on the voting results from the CBT, it seems like our readers are less likely to vote C, probably because they know C is fucked.

The uninformed player would probably think "wait, C has lost for so long, I guess I gotta vote C now" hence why the distribution of actual EN voting vs. CBT voting is slightly more skewed to favor C. 

Personally, I'm concerned about getting the most points in-game because in-game points matter for top 100, but I'm not really sure for those who aren't sweaty about top 100. 

What do you put as the odds that Eoneo gets #1?

Probably high. 

He's been rank 1 in the boss CE charts for every boss node, and he's picking pure B, which has historically netted the most points for a pure-X decision, with only a few exceptions where A netted the most points instead.

You've essentially gotta beat the all-B train and have to be relatively high in the CE boss rankings in order to beat him. 

Now that's a very interesting take.

I mean, it's true.

It's also a fact that A lost on day 1, that's still probably in most player's minds, especially of those who picked A that day. 

I'd say that's a big contributing factor to A's current win streak. 

Oh yeah, people coming into contact with Hard 8 have started their panicking about Core 8. 

It's honestly not too hard. 

We've got an A majority this time, we have to be correct one of these days, right

Remember to send all 66 drones available today to your zone of choice (which may or may not be the same as what we picked)! 

For endgame players that just want to maximize their points, each day after the ceasefire, you can always find the TL;DR on what zones are optimal to do for that day at the start of the Theater Guide!

Oh, and don't forget to submit the CBT form every day when you investigate in-game! Here's the histogram of scores after five days, with only 5 users maintaining a perfect pick record: 

Omake

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About the Author(s)

(AKA Nonotan, Discord Cleista#7481)

Guide writer and editor for Girls' Frontline, and one of the few people who like its gameplay more than the gacha. Got MICA to pay me 8000 gems once. 

Send guide suggestions and ideas via DM on Discord, or drop some in the #gf_site_suggestions channel on the Community Discord

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