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Theater Betting Episode 20: Final Countdown

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Day 19 Postmortem

You all dun goofed, B did not win. 

This is literally the panel's fault. 

B had 0.3% more votes than A. 

We definitely had more readers than that. 

Now now, it's not like we had a "too close to call" option. 

If I don't get Top 100 I blame you forever. 

This is your punishment for CE stacking. 

You did it too, hypocrite. 

Yeah and look where my score's going. 

Why do the Theater score graphs always end on Day 22? Isn't tomorrow the final day? 

I've been wondering that too. 

Some people told me today is the last meaningful day of voting too - what's up with that? 

The day 22 thing is because CN KR and TW all have their maintenance start after ceasefire.

EN gets denied the final day because our maint is 4 hours before ceasefire - hence why the theater banner ends at 4/20 23:59. 

Theater Mini Banner

For voting, Theater goes away after maint so... you can't see the leaderboards (which has your score/position) anymore. Can't see which region won either. 

You can figure out your % ranking at some point when rewards are distributed, but you won't see your final score after the last scouting. (The final set of drones does count, though.)

So pump all my resources tomorrow? 

Nah, just dump all your resources today so you know what % you end up at. 

It's not like dumping now vs. tomorrow changes how many points you get, but at least you get some peace of mind. 

Dump it tomorrow for the ultimate surprise. 

Just don't do any math that could potentially spoil yourself. 

Maybe I can get Top 100 for the prize of 2 extra data patches after Theater 2.

When you put it that way, it really makes the top 100 reward sound pretty terrible, doesn't it. 

Just as useless as event ranking top 100 then. 

It's even worse because there's no flex value in Theater top 100. 

I can't wait to see the cataclysmic scoreboard shift when backstabs happen. 

Even the most backstabby player will dump today to see their approximate rank. 

It's too tempting to not do it. DMesse's sheet is gonna be interesting if enough people remember to resubmit. 

Meanwhile in KR land, hard still not cleared on day 11:

KR might not actually finish Theater at this rate. 

I can't believe KR is the brainlet server. 

Someone make me a CN account, I want out. 

Is KR intentionally delaying their progress or what?

There's no point doing it. 

I think people are just not playing on KR server. 

Isn't GFL KR pretty big?

KR is a very competitive server but it's not much larger than EN. We have similar ranked participation numbers, their top few % just try way harder. 

Theater progress is mostly based on participation, so a small number of tryhard players can't really carry it. 

EN did have 2 events running at once but KR has nothing going on besides Theater.

They should know you have to run Theater every day by now, why aren't people doing it?

KR player numbers have been tanking for a while now. This was from a week ago and it's probably been continuing to slide. 

That's "Galaxy gamers" i.e. player count for Samsung Galaxy phones/tablets. It doesn't include those who play on iOS, emulators, or other Android devices.

Granted, Samsung is the vast majority in KR. You can even see it in their revenue charts, KR has 10x as many Android players compared to iOS, which is different from every other server. 

If I remember correctly, ~19,000 KR players participated in Polarized Light ranking. 

Doesn't that chart tell us revenue went up a lot in March? Why would player count go down then?

Polarized Light got dragged out for so long people lost interest - the fact that the event itself didn't live up to the hype doesn't help much. 

SF capture being an obvious money grab (that apparently worked) didn't help either. 

Can confirm, whaled SF Capture. 

That about sums it up actually. 

I just hope the next event's better and chapter 13 makes up for it. 

How would a story chapter make up for a 2 month event and blatant moneybagging?

Even if the delay is due to virus, it exposes severe underlying problems like how they released PL with the second half unfinished and still in development when it should've been in the testing phase.

MICA needs to get their shit together or this game we all love is gonna shut down. 

I pray it doesn't come to that. 

Day 20 Bet Brainstorming

How did the voting analysis go from literal pages of text and math to... whatever this is?

We realized that EN was beyond science. 

A lot of us were convinced that our reasons were right only to be proven completely wrong the very next day. 

That stuff does mental damage to everyone and hurts the thoughtful people more.

It also drives me crazy when some people say nothing during the day then have a wall of text explaining why their choice won after voting results come out. 

At least corsage still posts his thought process even when he guesses wrong, not like those guys who berate you for guessing wrong on days where it's actually a 50-50. 

You throw enough shit and eventually something will stick. 

Present arguments for every option and claim you're a prophet the next day regardless of outcome. 

Who needs reasoning when you can just follow a story script? 

Also, you recorded my vote as B yesterday when I told you I voted A. 

At least you didn't end up putting "B" in the date field like me. 

I'm so done with Theater. 

Sorry, I'll go fix that. 

I just didn't expect you to ever pick A so my brain autocorrected it to B. 

I'll go B and hope I can stay above the average. 

Just be glad you aren't dealing with TW theater where results are pretty much RNG because of how close the votes are. 

Nice 3 wins in 11 days. 

I just picked B every day. It worked out pretty well so far score-wise. 

What do we pick today? 

It's another A/B tossup. 

If we go by trends, B would win. But EN could do the EN thing and give A triple win. 

I'd say 20-80 odds for A-B respectively. 

I'm just glad there aren't enough days left in Theater for me to lose now. 

I'll backstab one of you out of Top 100. 

You're second-to-last place on this panel aren't you? You didn't CE stack either so can't be that. 

My score is actually really close to the bottom cutoff for Top 100. 

That's surprising, people who did Core 8 every day would have your score or better. 

Maybe EN has fewer people capable of clearing Core 8 than we thought?

Yuzu is gonna try to backstab and get killed by the thousands of other players holding back their materials. 

This never gets old. 

I've just come to accept that I suck too much at betting to ever get into Top 100. 

Next theater I'll just drop the A anchor and win 15/21 times. 

You'll end up doing worse than the B bed anyway due to a lack of base point value. 

No one's even contesting the B pick. 

Is it that obvious?

None of this actually matters for us because we're all consistent Core 8 clearers who can get 5%, so 4★ AT4 is assured. 

Top 100 is essentially bragging rights only but who brags about Theater rank? This isn't a real ranking event.

If I end up last place, I don't think I want to return back to the dalao panel. 

I'll ask for official recognition as a "semi-dalao", my new title. 

Just send us your swimsuit cosplay pic before you leave. 

Day 20 Bets

Get OUT of my B bed.

My gut said A this morning, but my backstab meter said B. 

I actually thought of voting C as a safe pick, but then I thought about it and I don't think C is safe today :ribbleed:

I also don't think I can vote C tomorrow because the 'last day go C' meme exists for some reason. 

I did dump all my materials today to see where I'll stand tomorrow, so I'll find that out after ceasefire. 

This is the most unified vote in panel history. 

I'm just here to ruin the 100% vote. 

Let's all be wrong together. 

I wanna see this shit all red for one day. 

We go down with the ship, captain. 

Let's see that 0% tomorrow when A wins. 

Do you guys know what the "call of the void" is? It's that tiny thought in your head which tells you to jump when you look down the side of a very tall building.

My brain telling me to vote C is a call of the void.

You went for it anyway though. 

Remind us to keep you away from the balcony of tall buildings. 

Those C votes have been at least neutral every time I've gotten this sensation.

The void is calling my name once again. 

My reasoning for today's vote is basically that anyway. 

I had that eerie feeling this morning. 

Something like uneasiness, like the calm before the storm. 

Sometimes the storm turns out to be just a light drizzle, which would be the equivalent of C going neutral; but sometimes the storm is a calamity, which would be the equivalent of C winning.

But the tension is still there: I'm feeling that again.

I'm currently rank 14 on the leaderboard.

I went neutral yesterday so I'll drop to something like #20, but if I win with C here, I win the whole event.

I'll otherwise be happy with a low Top 100 score or even a top 1%, so it might just be personal bias.

There is some data in the trends that do support my claim but there is overwhelmingly more data that supports a B win.

There's still 1 more day for comebacks even if you win tho, and I think C is still too dangerous. 

This is the equivalent of betting big when your poker hand is just one pair and your opponent won't fold. 

I know that, but I have nothing to lose. 

Then again, I have nothing to gain either, because I'm content with 1%. 

A is gonna lose, because I'm expecting B < C < A or B < A < C.

The trends I was looking out for were:

  • A < B < C two days in a row
  • W-L-L progression for C
  • stable C for two days, A,B converging on day 2

They all pretty much say B, but there are other factors to consider when looking at these trends obviously: this is the second to last day of the event, and we had a C win only three days ago. 

We would've had a 100% B pick if corsage wasn't busy being a rebel. Let's see if we can either pull off that >90% prediction before Theater ends or get 0% and make history. 

Anyone who hasn't done it yet, please check out the Community Content Contest submissions and vote!

Either click the link in that tweet below or visit here to see more

Whether it's creative work, videos, or guides, we have it all!

The GFL EN community worked really hard the last month to make all of this possible, so make sure to give everything a look and then vote for all the ones you liked

Remember to also send all 96 drones available today to your zone of choice (which may or may not be the same as what we picked), and do your Core clears!

Core 8 is daunting, but should still be possible if you follow the teambuilding guide and have decent units/equips/fairies. There are five videos all showing how to clear it, so watch them and see which one works for you!

For endgame players that just want to maximize their points, each day after the ceasefire, you can always find the TL;DR on what zones are optimal to do for that day at the start of the Theater Guide!

Oh, and don't forget to submit the CBT form every day when you investigate in-game!

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About the Author(s)

(AKA Nonotan, Discord Cleista#7481)

Guide writer and editor for Girls' Frontline, and one of the few people who like its gameplay more than the gacha. Got MICA to pay me 8000 gems once. 

Send guide suggestions and ideas via DM on Discord, or drop some in the #gf_site_suggestions channel on the Community Discord

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