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Theater Betting Episode 18: Chaos

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Day 17 Postmortem

I just had the weirdest dream last night, where I dreamt that A B and C were somehow playing in a CSGO game and Zuna was the last remaining player who voted B against a random guy who voted C, and Zuna managed to clutch the round for B.

Results came in right after that round ended and it was B < C < A.

I had a dream of the same sort too at the start of theater. Let's see if you too have the power of prophetic dreams.

What the hell guys, stop dreaming about theater. 

Also that's not even the right order. 

It looks like you were not the chosen one corsage. 

You did somewhat predict this yesterday though. 

...:CKing:

I'd like to dedicate this C win to my fallen brother Uyuki, who was one of my first friends I made on the KR server who no longer plays the game.

After betting like shit on theater 1, he decided to plant his ass on the C chair for all 22 days of both theaters that followed.

Rest in AK, Uyuki

:risitasSalute:

I can't believe that C won in 3 different servers in one day.

:suomibottle~1:

What happens after C wins?

A could win after C. 

Yeah, people will flock to C now because C won. 

Or everyone else could be thinking that as well, resulting in a C double win. 

It's EN, they're predictable. 

You picked B yesterday and lost though, Mr. "EN is predictable". 

I fully blame this B loss on you leaking my vote. 

The reason C won in the first place is that a lot of people thought "B is obvious so let's pick B", followed by "B is obvious so let's do the not obvious thing and pick A".

Let's be real here, people are dumb, so we can't really predict anything.

Amazing :uzispray: scouting

At the end of the day, no matter how much you try to predict a trend, or if you just C Chair all the way through, all we're doing is just guessing.

I'm sad.

Very sad.

I don't think I've ever lost this much in betting before.

I wonder if Ceia and I are still in Top 100 after this. 

We're definitely not Top 5 anymore, and the lower bracket will probably skyrocket. I doubt the bottom of Top 100 would have taken C. 

I did the math, and #15 and above must have chosen C to get #1. 

I doubt any of them chose C, so the shuffle will likely be at the lower brackets. 

I can reach like top 30 if I put in all my resources, but that assumes nobody in top 100 voted C and nobody else hoarded resources trying to jump up like me, which obviously isn't true. 

I have 120k points worth of resources and somehow am still within top 10% :ribdieinside:

There are lots of backstabbers, but I wonder if this means EN got filtered too hard by Core 8. 

Oh, turns out Brekkie voted C and he'll overtake me with just that, so congratulations. 

I'm not sure what to vote. 

I also don't know if I'm still safe or not with me going from 5% to 3% then back to 5% again. 

EN scoreboard isn't really a good indicator until the final day because we can save resources.

For great science, for great backstabbing efforts, and for great delicious salty popcorn:

Google Form for collecting Theater 1 scores:

Google Sheet with collected scores:

There really are lots of people holding onto their resources, huh. 

It's also possible that the steep dropoff is due to being unable to do Core 8. 

You can't hide your 65-66k from Core 8 every day. 

At least Core 8 scores are nice and safe, the problem is voting where everything is non-deterministic. 

Whether I'll actually vote C after saying that it can win twice is also not determined yet.

You can go over to the US/JP graph tab, which has the score income chart in comparison to zero participation & dumping all into infrastructure (green), winning all bets (purple), and losing all bets (teal). 

tl;dr: you suck if you opt to avoid scouting gamble by dumping everything in infrastructure. You will easily win a lot more points by gambling.

Only in Theater though. 

Don't gamble away your money in real life. 

Day 18 Bet Brainstorming

So I just found out I actually forgot to scout in-game yesterday. 

You clutched a win. 

By not voting B on the day it lost, you gained 960 points. 

The gap between us and a perfect scouter grows wider each day. 

Once again Whim lost points by abandoning the C chair. 

I'm happy not being dead last but yes, the C Chair betrayal hurts.

I can't believe I'm last place. 

Better bring your sister into this matter ASAP.

The last thing she said to me was "fuck off", so that's probably not happening any time soon. 

What did you do to have your own sister curse you out?

Asked her what to vote. 

Let me try. 

Hey sis, what should I vote toda-

NO

...Never mind then.

Yuzu now just has to vote the same thing as Fury each day to ensure Fury gets last place in this panel. 

Kira has somehow jumped almost 10k points with that C win. 

He doesn't deserve this. 

We may have lost the war, but we won the battle.

Worth™️

Doesn't the saying usually go the other way?

I think B will win because they like to jump off the loss train.

B < C < A in votes. 

I don't know if I can trust any sentence coming out of your mouth containing the phrase "I think". 

What am I going to vote for today :m200sleep:

How's that comeback arc going?

Look, it went well day 1.

The studio just went out of business after that episode. 

I think it's going to be a lot closer than people think. 

I do agree that C will probably lose though :ribdieinside:

C is gonna be super stacked.

It's EN, tons of people will go to it just because it won yesterday. 

So what do you think will happen?

The same people who voted B yesterday are the type to also mindlessly rush C afterward, so C is doomed. 

The people who voted A yesterday have a mindset that'll get them to vote for B today. I bet you're going to see the same kind of migration in our panel. 

Day 17 was a massacre. 

So many of us went B. 

I can't blame anyone who voted B lol, it looked free. 

How could we have known EN would break the mold on that exact day?

After looking at the data and listening to Pyrus mald, I think I know where to go. A/B/C chances of winning are 0/0/100. 

But I need to ensure Fury loses, so I'll vote for whatever he goes for. 

I would actually give A/B/C 55/35/10 odds of winning. 

I'll just go for B, I need sleep. 

It was my first instinct, and B works like, half the time. 

You can see in the charts that B only is somehow a good approach as evidenced by the fact that most of this panel lost to it. 

You're gonna have painful losses but it's cancelled out in the long run by the much more profitable wins, and it's reliable due to the amount of flip-flopping that goes on. 

Going for the safe pick is smart. 

On the other hand, I feel pressured to pick something unsafe to try and luck back into top 10. It's so risky but I need to take it to make a comeback. 

Just wait for other people to throw. 

Then you'll win by default. 

On an unrelated note, they nerfed Manti-chan already. 

1. [Fix] Fixed coalition unit "Manticore" having 100% damage coefficient on both hits of its normal attack, where it should actually be 50% each.

2. [Adjustment] Changed coalition unit "Manticore"'s skill 1's targeting logic to be the same as its normal attack, i.e. 2 hits of AoE damage that is affected by accuracy, crit and armor.

3. [Fix] Fixed enemy units being able to be knocked back by multiple "Manticore" skill 2s within a short period, as well as the knockback distance being greater than expected.

They gave 10 free Svarog tickets as compensation, can I have that in KR? It's worth like $20. 

This might be the fastest nerf we've seen in GFL history. 

If we don't count nerfs that happened during maintenance like M1895CB or Python, I think so.

Both of them are still really good and relevant in the GFL meta. I wonder if post-nerf Manticores will still be a great pick. 

Those were well-deserved nerfs, but the Manticore got hit super hard. 

The 50%+ DPS loss is huge, and the knockback got gutted as well. 

That knockback nerf was necessary IMO. 

Who cares about DPS when enemies literally can't touch you? 

The Korean GFL players who play on CN seem pissed. 

I'm mad and I didn't even get to catch a manticore before this nerf. 

On a more interesting note, only 16% of current EN Theater top 100 were Top 100 rankers in Continuum Turbulence. 

The resource hoarding hypothesis is all but confirmed then. 

You couldn't have figured that out when most of the panel has been openly doing it this entire time?

Day 18 Bets

Where's Arcus?

Zzzzzzz...

Since no one picked C, that means everyone thinks C won't win again. 

This will result in people not picking C, causing a C win. :Kappa:

I actually picked C 7 times before today and went 2 loss/4 neutral/1 win. 

Notably, both times when I picked C expecting to win, I lost. 

The best decisions are made by not even looking at trends. 

I simply asked a VTuber again. 

I hope C just wins for the rest of Theater on EN to mindbreak the entire server. 

Would be funny if top 100 is entirely replaced by C Chair. 

Since none of us are in the C Chair, could this be the first day of our panel having 0% accuracy?

Don't you dare. 

There's a very good reason why I went with A today: C win very often results in an A victory.

Wouldn't people go for A? B lost, so B should bleed into A.

Given yesterday's numbers, an A victory requires B to not move after losing.

Think of it like this: 

If C < A < B (like day 17)

  • People vote C because C just won and they think people won't vote C again
  • People vote B because B just lost so they think it probably won't lose again
  • A is left out like a dark horse

If C < B < A

  • People vote C for the same reason as above
  • People leave A because an A loss hurts

So A has a good chance of winning no matter what then.

In the first case (what we just got on EN), A is kinda just forgotten so it's riskier than the second case, where people definitely leave because A loss.

I don't think B will fall hard: it'll probably fall but those people will likely join C, with some going into A.

Literally every single example of C win I posted before resulted in an A win. 

Look for W-D-W progressions for A: they all happen with C win on the day A draws.

The only exceptions are on early days of Theater 1 on old servers when nobody had any idea how to play theater, but we're past that point now. 

Is EN past the tipping point? That's the one unknown still haunting me. 

Our trends are really stable. For instance, our current trend is very similar to the tail-end of old server Theater 2 trends. 

C < A < B never results in an A loss, except only once when the vote% were extremely close and very difficult to predict, so it's safe to say A will go at least neutral. 

I'm gonna say it's likely an A win though.

Oh right, voting for the Community Content Contest is now open. 

Either click the link in that tweet below or visit here to see more

Whether it's creative work, videos, or guides, we have it all!

The GFL EN community worked really hard the last month to make all of this possible, so make sure to give everything a look and then vote for all the ones you liked

Arcus is MIA but we still have a decisive B majority. As for me, I'm hoping for that magic double C win so I can laugh at these dalaos for hitting 0% guess rate. But that's probably not gonna happen. 

Remember to send all 96 drones available today to your zone of choice (which may or may not be the same as what we picked), and do your Core clears!

Core 8 is daunting, but should still be possible if you follow the teambuilding guide and have decent units/equips/fairies. There are five videos all showing how to clear it, so watch them and see which one works for you!

For endgame players that just want to maximize their points, each day after the ceasefire, you can always find the TL;DR on what zones are optimal to do for that day at the start of the Theater Guide!

Oh, and don't forget to submit the CBT form every day when you investigate in-game!

Omake

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About the Author(s)

(AKA Nonotan, Discord Cleista#7481)

Guide writer and editor for Girls' Frontline, and one of the few people who like its gameplay more than the gacha. Got MICA to pay me 8000 gems once. 

Send guide suggestions and ideas via DM on Discord, or drop some in the #gf_site_suggestions channel on the Community Discord

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