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Theater Betting Episode 16: Tumbling Down

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Day 15 Postmortem

Ah dammit here comes the stupid HAHA FUNNY WEED NUMBER memes.

It's four days too early for that. 

It'll be 416 day soon, are you guys gonna buy that bundle?

The package costs 1760 gems, and contains: 

  • 416 Tokens (2496 gems)
  • Oath (580 gems)
  • Training Data (~300 gems)
  • Pure Sample (~300 gems)

The bulk of its value is in the costume gacha tokens. I would say it's only recommended to buy this package if you already whale tokens. Otherwise it should be passed over by F2P or Dolphin players. 

Why aren't any of us surprised about the results?

I mean we all knew A was gonna win. We just overthought EN's behavior and played ourselves. 

Since that's two non-wins in a row I'm gonna drop even further down in the rankings. :suomipout:

I did pretty well despite refusing to vote A. 

There goes my record. 

"B can't lose" didn't age very well, did it?

I thought A as soon as I woke up but I talked myself out of voting it. 

I'm never gonna overthink voting again. Gut instinct all the way. 

The current #1 has this as his investigation record by the way. 

Alright, he definitely deserves that. :ThankEgg~1:

I don't think even LeX has a perfect guess record. 

The chance of getting 15 right at random is so low that it's safe to say this guy most likely brained the scouting results. 

Three more days of this and he would've beat the Powerball jackpot odds. 

It's weird that EN showed signs of learning, but then yesterday they collectively did the obvious stupid thing.

I think what happened is that we voted opposite of the players who know how Theater works and neglected the vast majority of players that don't behave the same way. 

Just get out of my B bed. 

But isn't B the obvious choice?

No, if you go by the AABB pattern then it's an A win tomorrow. 

:grizzlyFacepalm:

It's gonna be A tomorrow, then B or C the day after. 

C neutral is gonna be almost 1k lower than an A win, so idk about the risk. Every point counts for me now. 

C neutral is actually pretty good though. 

Plus, a C win is so many points, 1.8x the raw score of an A win and a 2.3x the score delta of an A win. 

You know what, I'm gonna stop big braining. 

I'll just follow the EN brainlet pattern. 

I'll just go back to making meme videos. 

Day 16 Bet Brainstorming

Come to think of it, isn't the reference in this episode's banner older than most GFL players?

Aren't you supposed to be 17? How would you know?

I admit to nothing.

Can I just say that betting sucks?

My results got better when I emptied my head, just like Kazuki. 

My votes stopped making sense some time ago when they switched over to the "ask a VTuber at random" method of letter generation.

The more amazing part being my accuracy went up, while those of us talking about patterns and trying to connect the dots aren't doing any better. 

Also, simple algorithms like "Vote B" are giving better yields than we do anyway, so I'm pretty sure people are just here to listen to us be a comedy panel 8D

Trying to rationalize an amoeba of a server is clearly not the best way to go at this.

It's hard to read someone else without experience. Reading LOTS of someone else's is harder when they're not even vaguely unified.

Which is why my winrate on KR is considerably higher than on EN...

While I admit there are days in which the outcome is obvious (mostly attributed to the human nature of risk aversion), the great majority is just pure guessing.

Getting to see Ceia get memed on, even just for one day however, makes all this worth it~

My following a script method is working out great.

You abandoned the B bed. 

Karma will catch up to you one of these days. 

I'M MAD

Hey, I am too. 

WHY DO YOU THINK I'M CALLED THE ANGRY TRAP MIDGET!?

I'm curious though, who is more entertained by us? 

EN, or CN?

I saw CN having a blast.

I can barely understand CN. Too much weird netspeak. It's like I want to go Muvluv mode and go PLEASE ENABLE YOUR REALTIME INTERPRETER.

I hang around Japanese BBS too much.

The Japanese are way worse in that department though.

Yes, but at least I understand THAT dialect of weird netspeak. 

This is why I don't do translations of CN stuff, my Chinese is too normie-tier. (Also I can barely read simplified so yeah.)

Feels good when you have a CN friend. 

I knew that betting 10 fairy commands was a good idea.

COMEBACK ARC BABY

It was a good idea for me to have tried CChair, but I could’ve played A if I wanted to.

See, in the core 8 phase, it's not even about being good as much as being a good guesser 8D

Now it's just another week of comedy voting central while we watch Fury do Core 8 with a 200 pierce BGM. 

We're all gonna lose to Kwespell at this rate. 

Well, he voted B, so he sank in the same ship as us. 

Metalancer is now a solid 10k points ahead of us if my math is right. 

Man didn't even CE stack. He's gonna take the crown by being good at reading EN and bump out the entire top 10 of Core 8 boss rankings. 

Our track record was starting to get good, but then a big chunk of the panel picked B on the day it lost. 

Go away from my B bed. 

We thought EN looked at the data and finally learned pattern recognition, but they did the obvious thing anyway. 

We knew how bad of an idea the B vote was, but did it anyway. 

Truly a :uzispray: moment. 

I should have just stuck with my original mindset:

  • EN players don't look at foreign trends.
  • EN players only look at the last 2-3 days of scouting to make their decision.
  • EN players will try to outgame each other and fail.
  • EN players think with either 0 or 2 layers of thought.

Thus, the puzzle is easy to solve for those trying to win: just think of the most straightforward answer and it's likely the correct answer.

I keep losing because this stupid problem has happened multiple times, where I say something when I wake up and change my mind later. My 2 losses and all of my neutral picks are attributed to changing my mind along the way.

I've lost so many fucking times because of that, so I'm just gonna vote as soon as I wake up from now on.

Just kill me now... 

20k points gone because I tried stupid stuff. 

If it's any consolation, you didn't lose 20k. 

You lost 32k.

I tried to clear Core 8 with 1 swiss army knife team like Ceia, and it backfired.

My setup was reliable and AFK, then I screwed it up by trying the M4 squad with QBU, but I'm too garbage. 

Oh I should've told you that you needed Fervor to make that work, huh. 

I was retard and tried it with a 5 star Artillery with Damage 2 anyway. 

I used a real run to experiment so I couldn't even safe withdraw. 

K2 is a factor too if you're gonna do the M4 cannon team. 

In the Doppelsoldner fight, you need to kill the strelets ASAP. Most ARs don't pass the DPS check and even K2 barely works despite her map bonus and 0 ICD damage boost skill. 

You can also use ST AR-15 because she can wear crit scope in addition to PEQ. 

If you're using QBU, you're pretty much savescumming until you kill strelets. 

Arcus man, you suck. 

I'm sorry, but this was on you.

smh

It was just one run... but now I'm dead. 

Another one bites the dust from not listening to the advice to ignore CE stack. 

Day 16 Bets

Our reasoning is becoming increasingly detached from reality. 

I'm not sure about C because it isn't a safe bet at all, it'll either win or lose and I doubt a neutral will happen because it went neutral today and will attract players.

But I didn't really know which to choose between A or B so this was honestly decided by the fact that B had more base points. 

I just want C to win once on EN for the comedy. 

Just vote right guys, it's that easy. 

No vote wrong to use up your bad RNG 

Thus, we begin your slow descent into insanity.

Current time: T-5D from the end.

Most of us has begun to lose faith, the one thing human has always relied upon in order to move forward. Is there a meaning for all this madness?

No.

We know our time is running short, there is a clock ticking away regardless of the course of action we'll take.

What is the end? Why does it have to be an ending?

And so, we patiently waited...

Over the course of the next few days... we'd find ourselves constantly falling asleep in the comfort of our beds, only to wake up and continue our climb onto the mountain of ashes.

Trying to run away from the inevitable ending in hell.

Scrambling to survive, living true to our nature as living beings...

Even though we know that it is hopeless.

Yet, there is a lingering peaceful aura in all this madness.

You ask for a betting guess. The comatose pickle vanquishes your soul from this universe.

Realignment occurs. You beg for a betting guess.

A certain papillon's name is written on an obelisk in Egypt. Mumble. Peasants worship the obelisk.

Your soulless corpse partakes in the festivity. betting guesses are banned universally.

The sun implodes. All planets cease to have ever existed.

Mercury. Venus. Earth. Mars. Jupiter. Saturn. Uranus. Neptune. Pluto is the only mass in existence. Conveniently, you are on vacation here. Your need for betting guesses re-establishes space-time.

Sanity has left the building. There was never sanity. You ask for a betting guess. A library in phoenix ceases to exist.

One by one. The penguins steal my sanity.

Tell me where to acquire one of those penguins.

I need sanity to farm in AK.

You cannot acquire the penguins. The penguins have acquired you.

You plead with me to go across the street. I hear only children's laughter. I give you a betting guess.

You are screaming as you fall down the stairs. You cannot see anything. You take a bite of a hamburger. The concrete rushes up to meet you. You awake with a start in your own bed. Your eye twitches involuntarily. I give you a betting guess. As you kill me, I do not make a sound.

All sense has faded from this realm.

There was never sense. It cannot leave as it never was.

The universe has reasserted itself. A particular small dog is fed steak for the rest of its natural life.

You die in a freak accident moments later, and you soul works at the returns desk for the Phoenix library.

You disapprove. Your disapproval sends ripples through the inter-dimensional void between life and death. A small child begins to cry as he walks toward the stairway where his father stands.

I'm not sure what we're doing anymore. Is it even worth mentioning how our panel voted today?

Remember to send all 96 drones available today to your zone of choice (which may or may not be the same as what we picked), and do your Core clears!

Core 8 is daunting, but should still be possible if you follow the teambuilding guide and have decent units/equips/fairies. There are five videos all showing how to clear it, so watch them and see which one works for you!

For endgame players that just want to maximize their points, each day after the ceasefire, you can always find the TL;DR on what zones are optimal to do for that day at the start of the Theater Guide!

Oh, and don't forget to submit the CBT form every day when you investigate in-game!

Omake

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About the Author(s)

(AKA Nonotan, Discord Cleista#7481)

Guide writer and editor for Girls' Frontline, and one of the few people who like its gameplay more than the gacha. Got MICA to pay me 8000 gems once. 

Send guide suggestions and ideas via DM on Discord, or drop some in the #gf_site_suggestions channel on the Community Discord

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