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Theater Betting Episode 15: Folly

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Day 14 Postmortem

B won by the skin of its teeth.

This victory was made possible by a margin of ~20 players who voted A instead of B.

Does that mean I'm beating Ceia now?

Ceia got today wrong since he voted A, so I guess he'll be dropping below #1 on the leaderboards now. 

I'm back to #1 today because today's scouting results don't show up until tomorrow's leaderboard update. 

Where did you go? People think you got banned because you're not in the top 100 anymore. 

I dropped out since I didn't invest the ~6k materials I get (about ~18k points) and I also got yesterday wrong (~5k loss), which is greater than the score differential between you and the #100 spot. 

(I also renamed myself again so FkCeia is currently open, let's see if anyone else goes for it.)

Well, I had a good run. 

The GFL Baidu Tieba apparently picked up on the posts going around and are having fun with it.

That's from Gaige's post on the sub right?

OP also translated the uh... fanfiction stories involving us. 

It's like we're a soap opera for CN.

The what now?

The rest of that thread is mostly quality fanart it looks like. 

Google translate isn't helping. "US service really like spinach"?

Oh yeah, there's a lot of net slang that automated translation services won't understand. (In this case they're talking about how EN players love the gacha.)

Trying to understand most of it is futile even if you speak Chinese; if you haven't lurked BBS or bilibili for a while, a lot of the terminology will be alien to you. 

I like how the CN GFL players can have fun with the strange happenings on the other side of the globe. 

They also make some interesting stuff once in a while that we in turn translate into English, like this picture showing how P30's new costume is apparently full of JoJo references. 

Small internet, isn't it?

We all love Girls' Frontline after all. 

About the voting results, A and B being so close makes it hard to predict what's gonna happen next. 

C has been so stable I'm beginning to doubt whether it'll happen at all. 

Cosmic is dead set on this happening since the trends are similar to TW server, but I'm not so sure. 

That chart sure doesn't have the 0.16% difference in A/B votes EN just got though. 

I think that's a very important factor to consider. 

I need to keep my clean 10-4-0 record so we better come up with a good guess today. 

You're beating literally everyone else here, shouldn't we be asking you for advice? 

I just can't anymore. 

I'm running on fumes at this point. 

That means it's C Chair time right? 

:Cchair:

Day 15 Bet Brainstorming

Does this mean there are only 10 people who know what they're doing?

More like everyone got baited hard by a couple of the days where it looked like C would win, so people who didn't fall for it got more points. 

Since B won again, it's doomed tomorrow.

Logically, it should swing back A like the same 2-day pattern we've been seeing. 

It's obviously A, which makes A a bad choice, because everyone else is thinking the same thing. 

I'm feeling an A tomorrow.  

Looking at past data, close A wins tend to lead to a wider win tomorrow. 

The problem is I don't know if it applies to narrow B wins. 

You know what, let's just go with "it's 33/33/33" tomorrow. 

Choose one and cry when it loses. 

I mean, C is never gonna win, so it's really a 50-50, and you've been pretty good at that for the past few days. 

I lost today though. 

You threw on purpose so you didn't have to buy that lottery ticket, huh?

It was so close, legit could've gone either way. 

Is it finally time for the C Circus?

More like the C Casket, because at this rate it's never gonna win on EN. 

For what it's worth, a B triple win has never happened in Theater 1. 

It's happened very rarely in later theaters, but the circumstances were very, very different from what we saw on EN (either consistent thin margins between all 3 choices, or a massive A-B gap on the day preceding the third B win). 

That makes A the intuitive choice then.

But it's too obvious, which means if EN is smart then a lot of people will go to A, therefore making it lose. 

If EN is on 1 layer of thought, that's exactly what will happen, which makes B win tomorrow due to B voters going to A after their pattern recognition kicks in. 

Voting B is such a stupid choice though, it's going against all historical data and intuition.

Isn't that how theater works? Pick the choice that the fewest people will make. If EN were smart on average, then yeah, what you said applies. 

EN just can't be too smart, otherwise they realize this is happening and bandwagon B, snapping the results back into what they would've been on the 0 layers of thought of "B won let's vote B". 

What's the most EN thing that can happen? A winning with 20%?

A winning with 5%. 

Set some records, people.

C could also win if a miracle happens. 

That would be nice. 

A little bit of chaos at the end, and a complete reshuffling of the top 100 leaderboards due to EN shenanigans. 

Now that you mention it, the leaderboards have been fairly static aside from Smugslav guessing wrong and dropping to #6 (rip). 

C winning would be a nice shakeup. 

I'm betting on EN being on two layers of thought. 

It'll be good for people like me who are on zero layers of thought. 

Now that I think about it, foreign server C wins typically have it at around 30%. 

That might be a good approximation of how many C Chair players there are. 

You know what, now I actually need to think about this some more and not listen to Yuko. 

I'm literally last place now.

:NotLikeIfrit:

There are only three options man, that's easier than the SATs. 

Alright, 7 in a row. 

Yuzu, you can do this. 

Somehow I've gone above the pure-B pick in terms of overall score. 

It's more shocking that most of us are doing worse than people who just autopilot B every day without thinking. 

I'm completely lost as usual, so I'll just go to sleep and hope that inspires something. 

I'll go call up the church and have them send you a divine revelation. 

Day 15 Bets

This marks the beginning of my 7-episode redemption arc. 

You could say my points are... skyrocketing. 

corsage, why is it that all your big brain explanations have turned into "criin toes"? What the hell happened?

I might unironically quit GFL over bad scouting at this rate. 

We're also never gonna let you hear the end of it if that actually happens. 

I might have accidentally put all my tech into damage and explosion and skipped thrusters and speed. 

Let's get out of here before Yuzu brings the rest of us down with him. 

Hey I have facts and logic on my side, weapons that will totally work this time on EN, I swear. 

Eh, theater ranking is dumb anyway. 

I'm down to 2% now because I messed up and lost a run. I just hope I can stay in top 5%. 

The logical reasoning behind going C the last today was to observe the voting pattern of the C chair normies.

When Yuko and I both voted C, we added a total of 192 drones to the count.

Looking back at the trend for the past few days, you can see that the percentages were around 35-36% range but the number of drones per region per person for C is roughly around 4,700 to 5,000 person.

Even the big change from 2 days ago to yesterday result's for C was both lost, the difference of 200 people leaving C yesterday had a bigger impact on the other two choices, but C relatively didn't move at all.

The most logically thing to do for the last week is just gamble on the 50/50 of A or B since the deciding factor C would be neutral or lost.

For those betting on A, the C vote becomes important to you since going neutral on A while losing on C is just 5 point per drone. While losing A and neutral on C is a hard loss. That should be the only time when deciding on C vote if you plan on voting A.

For those wanting a safe option, B voting the last week is more of a safe pick since if A and B were to back n forth the whole week, you will eventually get head by sitting on B-Bed.

I'm putting my 10 command points on the line and calling for an A win tomorrow. You know what they say, a Rocket can't miss their target if you never specify a target to begin with.

Sounds like bullshit but I'll believe it. 

Where did my KSG skill go?

See, Suomi is still there. 

Ceia killed your KSG. 

That's the bug I mentioned a week ago.

You retreated Suomi too soon, which made the skill bar stop rendering. You gotta let all the skill icons load in before retreating anyone. 

At least Auto Skill still lets me activate KSG skill when I need to. 

Considering that you take 1 damage anyway, that skill shouldn't matter at all.

Is this your way of coping with the lack of S.A.T. 8? 

How was I supposed to know they'd announce Carcano M91/38 rescue event one week after I redeemed my true core mask?

Still no regrets, totally worth it.

Okay maybe a little. 

Well, the fact that a bunch of us went for B despite it being the obviously stupid choice means... that probably a bunch of other people did the same thing too, meaning B is totally screwed now. 

At least B can't possibly lose, I'll take B neutral for 40 even if it's less than A win for 60. 

Not like I made this decision after being awake for 24 hours or anything. 

Today's vote is really hard by EN standards anyway. 

It was easier when things fit into obvious patterns. 

I hope I picked the correct area.

Realistically I shouldn't care since it won't impact my % rank at all, but I really want to guess right so I can feel like some sort of big-brain genius even though I'm actually just guessing. 

We've got a fairly split vote with 4B 4A 3C this time. Will the obvious A win happen or will one layer of yomi propel B to victory? Only time will tell. 

Remember to send all 96 drones available today to your zone of choice (which may or may not be the same as what we picked), and do your Core clears!

Core 8 is daunting, but should still be possible if you follow the teambuilding guide and have decent units/equips/fairies. There are five videos all showing how to clear it, so watch them and see which one works for you!

For endgame players that just want to maximize their points, each day after the ceasefire, you can always find the TL;DR on what zones are optimal to do for that day at the start of the Theater Guide!

Oh, and don't forget to submit the CBT form every day when you investigate in-game!

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About the Author(s)

(AKA Nonotan, Discord Cleista#7481)

Guide writer and editor for Girls' Frontline, and one of the few people who like its gameplay more than the gacha. Got MICA to pay me 8000 gems once. 

Send guide suggestions and ideas via DM on Discord, or drop some in the #gf_site_suggestions channel on the Community Discord

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