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Theater Betting Episode 14: Strife

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Day 13 Postmortem

You didn't believe in the B, huh. 

In my defense, you were pretty much always wrong before. 

Plus I was really sure EN would have learned after the last three double-win into winner switches. Unfortunately EN did not learn which made me short 4800 points. 

I believe EN's behavior won't really change unless there's another catastrophic event like A quad win. 

If I die, corsage killed me because I told him to vote A yesterday. 

Ceia isn't #1 anymore. 

I like the name of #1. 

Ceia fucking deserved that.

Yeah except I know who it is, Cleista

Shouldn't have visited my dorm yesterday, I caught onto your shenanigans 5 hours before ceasefire. 

I need my daily batteries ok? I didn't think you actually paid attention to who visited your dorm. 

I did the math and realized I had more effective points than you, so I went for it. 

Was it worth the name change card?

I have like, 5 of those from buying bundles.

Somebody on /gfg/ got my old username tho, so I gotta find something else now. 

I continued the chain. 

You got the "i" and "l" backwards. 

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

RIP kwespell 2019-2020. 

/gfg/ figured this out pretty quick too since your old name still shows up on the advanced data leaderboards and it opens your current "FkCeia" profile. 

What are you gonna do now? Some anons aren't cool with the fact that you put /gfg/ on your ID card when you're part of the Discord/Reddit community. 

It's an anonymous imageboard, y'know? The beauty of it is that you don't know who's posting besides the idiots who fill in their username or use a tripcode. 

Plus with GFL communities being as small as they are, there's bound to be overlap between all the English-speaking circles anyway.

Hell, aren't half of your community members from 4chan? You ought to know how it is from first-hand experience. 

I'm sure half of the people complaining about Discord are LARPing and the other half are just doing it for easy (You)s. 

You can see the general went back to normal after like 2 threads because all the regulars got tired of that shit. 

Well, I don't blame the anons who are sensitive to other communities purportedly leaking in - I personally don't like the way that the GFL Discords and subreddit are run (nor the types of people it tends to attract), which is why I'm not really active there except in the small pockets that don't have those problems. Chalk it up to my nostalgia for the freer days of the internet if you will.

/gfg/ is a comfy safe haven from the parts of GFL's fandom that people like me tend to avoid, so the regulars are understandably upset by the prospect of tourists and other foreigners brigading in and messing it up.

People who want to visit /gfg/ should read the OP and lurk 2 months to learn how it works, then they shouldn't have any trouble blending in later. "When in Rome...", you know the saying? Just do that. 

It was funny to see all the other dorks accusing each other of being Ceia while I'm just posting there normally while no one noticed. 

EN just learned of backstabbing in Theater, but 4chan has been doing it since the beginning of time. 

Speaking of Theater, didn't you vote A yesterday? 

You're gonna lose that #1 immediately. 

Oh shush, it was fun while it lasted. 

Kinda sucks that one wrong scout tanked my chances at maintaining #1. I thought EN would've caught on and voted B, thereby causing B to lose, but that was thinking ahead too much apparently. 

I shouldn't have trusted Yuko yesterday. He backstabbed me. 

Time to plot my revenge...

I was also right about EN but I got dabbed on by Kira hemorrhaging A propaganda onto me as soon as I woke up. 

I have a hard read on EN's pick today and I'm not gonna let Kira ruin it again. 

I like the "blame Kira" strategy. 

Hey Kira, why did you travel back in time to subconsciously convince me into voting A? 

The lack of sleep created this situation that we're all in.

How do I reply on 4chan? Someone's talking shit about me. 

Kira, that makes you the exact kind of person that they don't want going there. 

Just give it up and realize that not everyone has to like us. 

Get outta /gfg/ before you make their claims of Discord shitting up the thread real. 

Day 14 Bet Brainstorming

I went to sleep and woke back up, but still don't know what to vote. 

As important as sleeping is, it really doesn't seem to help you decide in Theater. 

One more day of B it is. 

Yuzu's rocket science failed us. 

"surely b won't lose 3 times in a row"

It didn't :uwaaGant~1:

I contradicted myself and I ended up being wrong. 

I'm never trusting what Kira tells me again, so this time I'll cast the vote based on my own thoughts.

My calculations say it'll be B again. 

A and B are a lot closer now though, and the chance of C went up a bit. 

I'm actually following a story script right now for voting, so Whim might actually surpass me. 

I thought you went with B because it was the safest option. 

I'm already super behind, if I don't step my game up I'm dead. 

Your two mistakes were trusting me and not sleeping. 

I made the biggest mistake that a statistician should make: to accept a conclusion first before justifying it.

Human bias is fucking real. I should have relied on myself more in my hour of need. 

I'm actually not sure what EN will vote for. 

Every time you said that, you won anyway. 

I'm serious! I just got lucky with the 50-50 picks for a few days in a row now. 

If you have no idea how to vote, just vote C. 

It's the sanctuary for those who don't know how to read. 

Eh, C is pretty stable at 36%, so it's not gonna win. 

Might go down a bit because it just lost today though. 

Is it safe to assume that there's a 36% C Chair population then?

Nah, that's not how this works. 

It might look like C didn't move from 36%, but there's just negligible net movement. There might have been 10% of C voters going to A and B that's been replenished by 10% of voters going A and B into C.

I just asked at random during a stream as usual.

Slowly my sanity slips, and my reasoning in the commentary become ever more surreal.

Ask Haachama today; it's an English only stream. 

I already asked Aqua.

In unrelated news, I want A-91's new outfit now... totally not just because it resonates with me. 

I won C Chair on Korea so I'm in a good mood.

TAKE THAT EN!

KR is capable of feats EN can only dream of. 

C actually being able to win sometimes in KR is so nice. 

They've reached equilibrium after three Theaters. 

Happened on TW too. 

You should have lost on EN instead. 

You even said you wanted to make TW your main account. 

Can you guys help me CE stack?

Do you want to raise seventy billion shotguns, slugs, and bonus units that will be completely useless everywhere else?

fuck

:pensiveheh:

I'm sorry, but it's terminal. 

This is just another tragedy waiting to happen, isn't it?

I can't believe Fury is a filthy CE stacker. 

The trick is just doing Core 8 every day anyway.

If you have to ask how to CE stack, you probably aren't in a position to CE stack.

I've already seen multiple Top 100 players get permanently knocked out because they failed a run after greeding for boss CE. 

A few GFC members too. 

Basically don't do that. 

Get your stable clear comps and ignore CE, much better to lose like 100 points per run than risk losing 32,000 points from failing. 

Day 14 Bets

Vote with your heart!

I mean not like it matters on EN at this point and we've turned into a comedy channel in the interim.

The last few days prove that EN is on 1 layer of thought. 

As in, "I'd pick B, but everyone else is probably thinking the same."

That line of thought causes people to not vote B, thereby making B win. 

That's my gut instinct as well, but I don't know if I should trust it. 

After all, going against my reasoning made me win the B pick yesterday. 

I need to vote differently from you to have a chance at a comeback, so I hope I picked right. 

EN is on a pattern so far. 

Are they gonna break it soon?

Well, you saw the KR and TW results. 

They've been through 3 Theaters and are on their 4th now, so the voters have almost reached nirvana and the options are in equilibrium. 

If anything, our server should be the easiest to predict now because we're in the first theater when options still develop massive margins. 

I wonder if LeX got memed on by EN yesterday. 

He was probably smart enough to pick B though, he's been doing way better than all of us. 

The fact that one wrong guess from me changed my score from 1.8k over Ceia to 3k under is simply tragic. 

This distribution was more stratified the last time you posted it, but I guess more 96 drone days will smooth it out into something more normal-looking. 

I like how "voting for whatever lost yesterday" is somehow a viable strategy that's beating pure A/B/C choices and the rest of this panel aside from Ceia. 

EN doesn't have the attention span to actually vote like that. 

It's only like that because of the crazy A/B switching going on anyway. 

When C starts winning or losing it won't perform as well. 

Maybe I should throw today's vote so I don't have to buy a lottery ticket. 

Don't you dare.

Ceia winning the lottery would increase the amount of nice things he has. 

WE CAN'T HAVE CEIA OWNING NICE THINGS.

We've got a lone C vote from Yuzu with the rest of the panel overwhelmingly preferring B over A, but will EN actually be predictable this time and give us the B win? Only time will tell. 

Remember to send all 96 drones available today to your zone of choice (which may or may not be the same as what we picked), and do your Core clears!

Core 8 is daunting, but should still be possible if you follow the teambuilding guide and have decent units/equips/fairies. There are five videos all showing how to clear it, so watch them and see which one works for you!

For endgame players that just want to maximize their points, each day after the ceasefire, you can always find the TL;DR on what zones are optimal to do for that day at the start of the Theater Guide!

Oh, and don't forget to submit the CBT form every day when you investigate in-game!

Omake

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About the Author(s)

(AKA Nonotan, Discord Cleista#7481)

Guide writer and editor for Girls' Frontline, and one of the few people who like its gameplay more than the gacha. Got MICA to pay me 8000 gems once. 

Send guide suggestions and ideas via DM on Discord, or drop some in the #gf_site_suggestions channel on the Community Discord

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