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Theater Betting Episode 12: Impiety

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Day 11 Postmortem

There's a 0.33% difference between B and C.

Roughly 45 voters going for B instead of C made me lose. 

:terirope~1:

I can't believe there are still people not voting with all 93 drones.

Maybe it's because they can't clear past Core 3 or something, which I guess would make sense for those who only recently started playing the game. They probably wouldn't get enough materials for all 93 drones. 

There are also people who don't want to risk betting so they just dump everything into construction, but they won't affect the voting anyway. 

I don't think people quite fully understand that scouting can give way more points than construction does.

For instance, even if you threw a D3 and voted based on that, the probability that you will turn a profit over construction is between 60-65%.

I was right about overprediction: the theory made sense given the EN data on days 8-10, which showed a sudden drop in B into no change in B.

I expected about a 20% rise in B but EN never fails to amaze me with how much B climbed, giving us another C neutral by a razor thin margin. 

It made A a really safe pick unless the mindset of EN players suddenly shifted overnight, which doesn't happen without some drastic event like A winning 4 times in a row.

The two /gfg/ guys on #2 and #3 are still right behind me, so it means they also got B right on day 10.

I still can't believe Ceia is actually #1. What has the world come to?

I got bumped back 1%.

But so did Eoneo, who isn't even in Top 100 anymore. 

I would like to point out that this A win was the most obvious thing ever. 

Say it with that much confidence before you see the results next time. 

See, A winning was so obvious I doubted it was gonna happen, but it won by a large and ridiculous margin. 

At least the panel accuracy over 70% or something finally, although accuracy over such an obvious win is kinda w/e. 

All I learned with this is to never ever go to Vegas, and that if we lose it's not really Ceia's fault while being Ceia's fault at the same time. 

How dare you be so popular Ceia. 

I'm uploading a guide for Core 8 in case people need it. 

You beat me to it 

:aquaCry:

neokai also made one that gives a different perspective on things. 

Here's my solution on how to kill everything in Core 8: Just M4 it.

Looks like EN got hit with a -40% penalty now that Core 8 is cleared. 

Fortunately, this appears to be a bug and should be fixed tomorrow.

We also got in-game mail explaining the situation. 

Since this issue affected everyone equally, it shouldn't really impact anyone's % rankings. 

Players who can clear Core 8 will have already gotten all the point milestone rewards, and players who cannot clear Core 8 wouldn't feel any difference in their scores. 

I had to deal with so many people complaining about this in the morning. 

It actually doesn't matter for your % rankings if you think about it, so the urgency with which they complained really made no sense. 

They could have waited a few hours for MICA's official statement.

Gave us good memes though. 

@GaigeDaMech made this within minutes of the issue being known, truly a master memesmith. 

I dumped all my mats yesterday and I'm still only in 1%. 

I'll never make it into Top 100 at this rate. 

Well, the difference between Ceia and #100 in Theater ranking is only like 13k points. 

Meanwhile, the point difference between getting all scouting days correct and no scouting days correct is ~29k. 

This means Theater Top 100 is entirely dictated by scouting RNG between all the players who can do Core 8. 

Because rankings update before your scouting points are added, I'm still in Top 100 because I guessed right yesterday. 

Since I guessed wrong today, I would probably drop from Top 100 tomorrow. 

To be exact, the order goes: 

Run score + construction points -> leaderboard updates -> ceasefire -> point gain from betting

Also Kazuki, it looks like you have fans: 

I do?

Day 12 Bet Brainstorming

It's obviously A isn't it?

I want to say B will win this time now due to the fluctuation.

This is true A vs B equilibrium in effect, while C is watching with popcorn.

I feel kinda awful today so I can't think.

I blame Kyazuki. 

At least you're not almost 20k points down on betting alone like me. 

If the /gfg/ #2 and #3 got every day right, why are they behind me in score?

Does that mean CE stacking worked?

Yeah I'm sure your CE stacking for 12 points per run made the difference and it's not just them embellishing their investigation results. 

Shut up! It totally worked!

Well, since we screencapped yesterday's leaderboards, it's possible to calculate their score per run assuming they've been doing Core 8. 

score_per_run = (score_difference - scouting_gain + materials-spent-scouting * 3) / 1.3 / 2

  • #2 (Metalancer): ((481201 - 391140) - (93 * 80) + 930 * 3) / 1.3 / 2 = 32850
  • #3 (Smugslav): ((481029 - 390868) - (93 * 80) + 930 * 3) / 1.3 / 2 = 32888

This is about 18-19k CE, which means they didn't really tryhard CE stack. 

It's only about a 120-150 point difference per fight, less than half of a percent. 

So I can't really guess wrong and still maintain #1. 

Just guess correctly for the next 10 days then. 

I'd rather use that much luck to win the lottery than Theater scouting.

One of my viewers is having trouble with Core 8 Uhlans and he doesn't have S.A.T. 8 - any advice?

You can just use a Skill Level 10 Twin Fairy and a 2RF 3HG comp (preferably with Accuracy tiles like from K5/SAA/Px4). 

The tanks do almost no damage to the Twin Fairies so it's a pretty safe clear, even at 1-star rarity. Still need to use BGM or AT4 though. 

Fun fact; None of AT4's three skills improve her shield pierce, so people who can't do Uhlans with AGS can just train their AT4 to Lv. 60 and give it enough chips to hit at least 300 Pierce and a decent amount of reload if possible. 

For some reason, a 2-star AT4 can perform better than a 5-star AGS-30 when it comes to breaking tank shields - great for people who have bad RNG and get more than 6 tanks/doppels in one run.

I mean, the AT4 is literally an anti-tank weapon...

Can we start revealing Ceia's votes so he loses and drops rank?

Please don't. 

I'll try to explain some reasoning at least though. 

Considering we had a B > A trend for the last two days, B > A > A seems like an obvious continuation going by past trends. 

But this is EN, so we might see B > A > B or even worse, a C win.

I'm so sad that B lost by like 45 voters worth of drones. 

User behavior after thin margins are hard to predict. 

The sad part is really C getting neutral for two days, giving the C voters 50 points per drone. 

I've seen C spike in situations like this, but the votes were very close for all 3 options rather than just being a 2-way tie for C and one other option. 

Depending on how much EN second-guesses their own votes, it should be very close between A and B.

I would even say tomorrow's AB choice is 50-50. We just can't predict EN. 

Every fiber of my being says vote A, so therefore we ignore it because of the EN effect.

Thus, B must win.

What if A win but B backstab, but A backstab C and backstab B?

I just voted randomly. I barely remember what I chose. 

I just hope I won't be last place anymore by the time this ends. 

At least beat Kira to increase his debt.

Shuvi leaves B bed the one day it loses and gets 50 points. 

He was supposed to be punished for his sins, just like Whim and Eoneo. 

I got out to sit on the C Chair because it might be the last time that I can. 

I’m going back to B-bed today.

Day 12 Bets

I see C is dead now. 

no :Cchair:

C is going to win now and make us have 0% guess rate. 

We got rid of our stockholm syndrome of picking C while gambling on a win. 

How about your continued whaling in FEH to keep up with its powercreep PvP meta despite years of constant wallet abuse? 

I'm still working on that; maybe it is Stockholm syndrome with the sunk cost fallacy and all that. 

Wish I could drop these phone gachas as easily as I drop other games. I played BDO again a few months back because they added a new alternate skill system, only to realize my main class is still fucked and quit 2 weeks later.

Wasn't that game really P2W?

I played it alone so it was pretty much a single player game for me, though with a player-influenced economy

It's still p2w as shit though, at least some of the aspects. 

Because of meme crafting system and devs abusing their own mechanics to make money?

To be fair, most of the mechanics are pretty f2p-friendly or a small one-time cost.

But the tryhard sweaty parts are hella p2w and that's the part that most people care about; I was just a trading and processing nerd.

I had really good gear but never got to use it. Pretty much only played for the lifeskills, which I really enjoyed.

The PvE wasn't something I could get into, especially because my class was fucked back when I played and still kinda is, and I never did PvP because it was too p2w.

I'm just an afk andy making big bucks, abusing my empire of slaves to make calpheon crates, stacking over 20k lb of weight onto my horse and riding it across the entire continent.

For anyone who has no idea what we're talking about, basically to get high end gear you have to craft and it has a chance of failing, but the chance goes lower and lower the more you fail.

The devs saw that and made an item that allows you to failstack consistently, but the item is made from dismantled cosmetics.

The p2w STONKS crowd bought a shit ton of cosmetics, dismantled them for the item and auctioned them for a shitton of money.

Guess I won't be touching that game any time soon especially since I have no time for MMOs anymore. 

Don't get me wrong, I had a lot of fun playing it, but it's a rather large time investment.

That's the main reason I quit, because it's not something I can sustain while in school or working.

Don't want to play video games, but want a sense of pride and accomplishment? No problem!

Make some short bucks in any anime game by selling well sought-after ingame names. Back in the day Uchiha Sasuke would go for 50 dollars.

Wasn't this supposed to be a GFL column? Oh well, let's see if A actually wins tomorrow. Or rather, today, because I managed to delay this column by half a day again. 

Remember to send all 96 drones available today to your zone of choice (which may or may not be the same as what we picked), and do your Core clears!

Core 8 is daunting, but should still be possible if you follow the teambuilding guide and have decent units/equips/fairies. There are five videos all showing how to clear it, so watch them and see which one works for you!

For endgame players that just want to maximize their points, each day after the ceasefire, you can always find the TL;DR on what zones are optimal to do for that day at the start of the Theater Guide!

Oh, and don't forget to submit the CBT form every day when you investigate in-game!

Omake

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About the Author(s)

(AKA Nonotan, Discord Cleista#7481)

Guide writer and editor for Girls' Frontline, and one of the few people who like its gameplay more than the gacha. Got MICA to pay me 8000 gems once. 

Send guide suggestions and ideas via DM on Discord, or drop some in the #gf_site_suggestions channel on the Community Discord

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