Day 10 Postmortem
I haven't lost yet; this puts me at 6 wins and 4 draws.
Praying works, see?
I forgot to send scouts
I can't calculate EN anymore
I give up
You never successfully calculated EN to start with, genius.
C got neutral, so I didn't actually throw.
I underestimated EN's ability to learn.
I thought they wouldn't even get past the first tier of attempting to predict trends, but they actually managed to play themselves.
Hold on, are you guys seeing this? Ceia is #1 on the leaderboards right now.
This calls for drastic measures.
Why did you bring me back!?
I was on a roll too...
Alright Ceia, out with it, how did you cheat these last five days?
You went from being the worst guesser to getting 5 right in a row.
Not this shit again.
I actually guessed correctly on those three days where I said I'd vote my exam scores; you can see the comments I left near my vote.
Too many people voted for what I publicly voted for, which made it lose.
I mean, he's not wrong. Ceia has like 12k subscribers and there are only 14k or so people voting in Theater based on the datamined drone counts.
Even if only a small fraction of Ceia's subs vote for his choice, they can still overturn the rest of EN's Theater results by themselves.
We didn't think this betting panel had that much of a pull, but its viewership is actually a very significant fraction of EN's active playerbase.
The fact that these votes affected the public results so severely was not something we ever thought could happen to this extent.
We basically shot ourselves in the foot by doing this, because people just voted for what we thought made the most logical sense and caused it to lose.
We didn't have to do this panel; could have kept our votes secret and gone much higher in top 100 by avoiding the inevitable bandwagoning of our public predictions. We're handicapping ourselves by exposing our votes, so it's sad to have to deal with people accusing us somehow intentionally rigging the results
Hell, if we did this privately, we could've figured out whose vote made the most sense and changed our votes to that one. But because we're doing this column we're forced to stick with our own logic and reasoning even if we know we're gonna lose.
This is meant to be lighthearted entertainment that maybe helps indecisive players vote in the end; nothing about it actually benefits us personally except for the fun we have making each episode.
Too many people seem to follow my vote in particular, since when I was gone the panel's accuracy went up a lot, indicating that the viewers generally were divided on whether to take the rest of you seriously or not.
To avoid literally ruining Theater I might have to only show up as a co-host and not participate in the guessing.
What do you have to say to the people who are accusing GFC of somehow cheating with the CBT voting data?
The only guy on the panel who had anything remotely resembling access to CBT data (Kira) is currently second-to-last place in scouting score.
All of us did vote for what we said we voted for and we have plenty of video evidence to prove it.
Except for that one day you voted B instead of A.
I told you that was an accident! You were there when it happened!
It's really disheartening that there are people out there who think we're going to betray the years of trust that GFC built up in the GFL community for Theater ranking of all things.
Now I literally do not even get to see these stats until many many hours after ceasefire already ended, so what's even the problem? I didn't want to talk about this in public but I'm fed up with all the hatemail in DMs, horrible accusations in comments, on top of people literally trying to dox us.
Having to deal with this unnecessary drama is a major reason why these columns and the CBT stat infographics are delayed now. (I can only try and make up excuses for so many days so screw it, here's the real reason, now you know.)
I'm not sure how I should feel about all of this.
We came up with an event as a chance for the GFL EN community get free stuff and sacrificed a ton of our free time organizing and setting it up, and this is the treatment we get back? How are we supposed to keep the motivation to do positive things for the community?
We would really appreciate if people would stop trying to sabotage community events by spreading false rumors or demonstrably false accusations. It's rude and unproductive.
Let's just have fun playing GFL and discussing these community events in a collaborative environment. There are 10 days left in this wild ride that is EN voting, so strap yourselves in and enjoy!
Speaking of which, we've only sent 529 drones so far.
In the remaining half of theater there'll be a total of 1053 drones to send out, including the 93 drones from today. We're only one-third the way there in terms of drone count.
Scouting is a marathon, not a sprint.
Worrying about who's #1 right now is like saying the Falcons won Super Bowl LI because they started off 28-3.
So you're not keeping that #1 is what you're saying.
That's not what I meant!
Day 11 Bet Brainstorming
At this point I'm secretly hoping C wins.
It should flip back to A now, unless EN plays chicken with B like they did with A.
It's amazing how C never dropped below 30%; not once.
Too many EN CChair memers, its never gonna budge.
Well, the only ranking that matters is the core 8 rankings
I really hate how the one day the rise/fall trends dampen is also the day I vote C.
Clutch C neutral tho, saved my points.
C clutching so hard they drifted an AE86.
That B dive is colossal though.
Can we just resume Operation "vote the opposite of Whim's predictions"? It has a 100% success rate so far in the one day I tried it.
I think it's just like people thought that A was gonna go down to correct itself, so they chose it with that in mind - but too many peeps picked it, leading A camp to get too big and lose.
I honestly thought Day 10 is way too soon for EN to learn bluffing.
I’m going to nap for 3 more hours and hope this is all a bad dream.
I already voted A btw, gotta be decisive to make up for being dumb yesterday.
In truth, I can't be bothered to think about this anymore; all my brainpower has been spent on other things.
Reminder: praying works.
There's only a 2000 drone difference between A and C...
Literally 20 extra people voting A saved C.
I think after yesterdays shenanigans, future results will line up with foreign.
B dropping 25% is the statistical equivalent of a Type 2 error: a = 0.05.
We got fucked.
I can't believe we lost another 4k lead over Ceia because we picked C.
Better than picking A and going -15*93.
There's a 3.5k score difference between Ceia's current score and max possible score from scouting, so it's not much of a surprise that he's actually landed #1 at this point.
I won two days in a row and got to Top 100.
I can die happy now.
You're gonna lose now.
I don't even care anymore
B vote only
Fun fact: Based on score differences between yesterday and today's leaderboards, we can conclude Eoneo voted A two days ago and that's why he went to #12.
Just more proof that Theater top 100 isn't a real ranking event since it's all RNG.
It's pure skill, just like when I roll a 6 in OJ.
I'm looking at the stats for foreign now, did C win 2 times in a row in CN?
Nah, that's KR.
Yeah it won twice in a row for GALAXY BRAIN things
"Hah it won, no way it'll win again, so I'm changing votes"
My prediction is that EN is gonna overpredict and assume people will flock A because it's the obvious choice, thus flocking to B or C.
The reason why I believe EN will overpredict is because B won twice in a row.
People thought "B just lost, so hella people are gonna flock B, so I'm gonna vote A or C" with the overprediction mindset; hence why B won today.
I expect the same to happen, but this time with A.
Why I am guessing why B will win, B just won. People will flock to B logically. A and C will probably be very close.
But this is EN.
For any readers who are still stuck on Core 8 despite meeting the doll/equip requirements, this low-rarity fairy clear video might be a useful reference:
Day 11 Bets
Maybe there'll be some miracle and C wins.
The A loss compounded by the fact that people are likely going to vote B again because B has had a win streak before, the chances are A is going to win due to an expected drop in A votes and increase in the other options.
I looked again and the zigzag trend for C seems to stop around day 10 for most servers, so it's possible that it won't spike up tomorrow.
Haven't C wins come from C neutrals the day before?
It has, so that's not out of the question.
I'd rather not gamble the fact that B doesn't rise more than 15% like Cleista predicted however, as that will be resulting in a C loss.
So I'll go with the safe pick in A.
The more I think about it, the more I realize this is kinda like the Monty Hall problem: at least with the context of overprediction.
I assume that EN knows how to overpredict by now, so choosing the logical answer might win.
Look at day 10 votes, it's a classic overprediction - B lost, then B won.
They bluffed and got punished.
Day 10 recap
0 layers of thought
just pick C lul
1 layer of thought
- i) B just lost, so I'm gonna pick B because those who lost B are gonna vote for something else
- ii) A just won, so I'm gonna pick A because A usually goes on win streaks
2 layers of thought:
- i) B just lost, so people with 1 layer of thought are gonna vote B, but I'm gonna vote A to avoid these 1 layer nerds
- ii) A just won, so 1 layer nerds are gonna vote A because A usually goes on win streaks, so I'm voting B
So we have 1.ii and 2.i voting A, 1.i and 2.ii voting B.
You can even subdivide the cases further with the conditional that they voted A and won or B and lost on day 9 but I'm too lazy.
I just wanna know how many people are in layer 0 so we can guess when to vote C.
It's essentially N steps in a stochastic process with finite states (binary).
Each state has a 0.5 probability of staying or leaving at each discrete timestep.
If you have N timesteps, it's essentially just flipping a coin at that point.
The reason B won and A lost in day 10 is because num(1.ii) + num (2.i) > num(0) > num(1.i) + num(2.ii).
So to determine if EN is not thinking too much (1 layer of thought) or overpredicting (2 layers), you take sum(1) and sum(2) and figure out which is larger.
My deduction is that there is at least 3,000 C votes voting C at any point in time.
If we were to translate that to drone count, it would be 279,000.
For C to win at least one, we need that number to be between 3,700 and 4,100 or between 344,100 and 381,300.
Looking at C drones today, 434,647 and comparing that with the B the winner, 348,455. We need at least B to get 54,000 drones (580 voters) today.
Honestly, whatever analysis I do doesn't matter, cuz I'm gonna be wrong anyway.
I'm 4W-5D-1L right now.
The reason why I've been doing so poorly with the amount of draws is because I've been approaching this problem incorrectly this entire time.
...and I don't know what the correct approach is.
I factor in the EN part to my solution, I just need to factor how many RxSora there are in the C group - then we can truly have a 50/50 race.
head empty no thoughts has gotten me the most wins.
A is the obvious choice this time, but will it win?
Remember to send all 93 drones available today to your zone of choice (which may or may not be the same as what we picked), and do your Core clears!
Core 8 is daunting, but should still be possible if you follow the teambuilding guide and have decent units/equips/fairies. There are five videos all showing how to clear it, so watch them and see which one works for you!
For endgame players that just want to maximize their points, each day after the ceasefire, you can always find the TL;DR on what zones are optimal to do for that day at the start of the Theater Guide!
BELIEVE IN THE HEART OF THE CHARTS!