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Theater Betting Episode 10: Derangement

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Sorry about another delay, Olympus took up most of my free time today. It's probably my favorite Lostbelt so far, can't wait for when it comes to NA. 

Day 9 Postmortem

B won lmao

Guess the panel vote didn't scare people away from B. 

You didn't even vote. 

Coward. 

Listen, I didn't become Ceia 2 on purpose.

I blame Kira, dragging me into CS:GO matches when I need sleep. 

GET FUCKED CORSAHGE

HAHAHAH

Look I had an entire thing ready man, I was gonna say this:

I'm predicting a rise in C, fall in B, and no change in A.

L-W-W progressions for A tend to result in another A win, especially after the server has experienced a long A streak previously.

Why C will likely not win:

C just got neutral with a standing progression of L-D and a vote progression of 40% to 32%. C tends to rise about 10% after a neutral result or does not change in the worst case scenario. I'm expecting about a 35% C vote tomorrow.

Why B will likely not win:

B just lost. So we can imagine a large portion of these voters to move out of B and onto either A or C. However, the cost of losing B is not as big as the cost of losing A, so I don't think we'll see as radical of a fall in B's numbers tomorrow like we would expect if A lost.

Further, B's vote falls at most by roughly 20% (relative, not absolute 20%) after a B loss.

The only instance where this does not occur is in a server which hadn't seen a long A win streak before. Given that we just got off of a strong A victory after a strong A loss,  I predict that people will flock to B expecting a repeat of the same event but this time with B. 10-20% drop in B is likely attributed to this behavior, unlike the 30-40% relative drop we see in A votes after an A loss.

Why A will likely win:

Let's look at the possible values for A votes given the changes in B and C that I've described.

  • B will relatively fall between 10-20%, giving us an interval of (32%, 36%).
  • C will relatively rise between 0-10%, giving us an interval of (32%, 36%).

Looking at the four permutations based on the extreme outcomes for B and C.

1. B falls by 10%, C rises by 10% (most likely):
B will have 36%, C will have 36%, leaving A with 28%. No change in A votes, like I predicted at the beginning of this explanation. This is also the more median combination of B and C trends, leading me to believe this is the most likely outcome.

2. B falls by 10%, C does not change (very unlikely):
B will have 36%, C will have 32%, leaving A with 32%. This puts A and C at a coinflip scenario, but it is very unlikely that C does not change after a neutral result.

3. B falls by 20%, C rises by 10% (neither likely nor unlikely):
B will have 32%, C will have 36%, leaving A with 32%. This puts A and B at a coinflip scenario, but B will likely not fall by 20%. The trends from the old servers suggest roughly a 10-15% drop, with only a few instances of 20% drops after a B loss with 44% of the vote. We know that generally, the bigger they are the harder they fall. Given that we only had a B vote of 40% yesterday, I don't see this being a likely scenario, but it's also not unlikely.

4. B falls by 20%, C does not change (very very unlikely):
B will have 32%, C will have 32%, leaving A with 36%. There has never been an instance where both B falls by 20% and C does not change after a A < C < B result. This is not gonna happen. Probably... Hopefully...

But... B won. 

I'm not sure if you factored in EN in the equation, because it all makes sense but then EN...

Yea, hence the

Probably... Hopefully...

So EN shattered your hope against all odds, huh. 

I thought my explanation made sense...

EN up/down trends are dampening. The damper they are, the more likely my predictions are to be true. 

This is why I should've went with my gut instinct instead. 

I should have never trusted the Facebook votes.

I need to pick the opposite of what I say will win.

I said C will win, and it did "win". 

I’m actually big brain, but the wrong way :PepegaHands:

EN's has gotten pretty responsive at this point, there was a huge backlash from B. 

B dropped almost 25%, which is significantly higher than what was corsage's prediction assumed (<20%).

Whether EN keeps doing predictable things depends on how many people catch on to the pattern.

The fluctuations are getting smaller, so players may need to bluff soon.

At least so far, literally anytime C didn't lose it loses the next day, so we can be sure of that particular detail at least - not that it helps today. 

Well, C did lose, so it'll go down.

The question is if C will neutral again or keep losing, or maybe pull a miracle and win. 

How did A lose

I swear to god

This is so dumb

EN is legitimately retarded

How the fuck did A lose

How the fuck did A not win

It still shouldn't have been this hard of a switch

What the fuck

We broke corsage. 

At least A neutral is the same score as investing in infrastructure, so you didn't lose anything. 

In older servers generally, harder win/loss results in greater loss/gain in votes respectively. 

For EN to go -25% with B only at 40% is hard. Even a 44% B loss only went down to 35% (about -20%). 

This is so dumb, meticulous calculations being cancelled out by EN factor. 

At least I'm not rock bottom now.

...wait, I actually might be

:sweatblob:

I'm so mad holy shit

Don't tilt off the planet yet corsage, we need your wisdom even if you're tired.

I legit forgot to scout yesterday, don't worry about it. 

Just more proof that trying to apply logic and reasoning to EN is like expecting it to rain in a desert. 

Day 10 Bet Brainstorming

What's Day 10 looking like?

The only thing I know so far is that C is bad and to not vote C. 

Actually if it follows the zig zag trend C might win it :ribdieinside:

I think I'll guess A tomorrow; either A or C.

We're in that "A and B swap every day or two" phase now. 

I have no idea when/if C will win. 

I'm CE stacking now, I'm too angry to guess scouting. 

I guess not thinking is how you win theater in EN.

Apparently, asking VTubers is indeed a much better model than what I'd been doing.

What the hell...it's actually working.

I can also confirm my cult worshipping strat works.

I’ll lead the prayer again

:ribbleed:

Amen

All you did is vote B every day!

Ever since Ceia started backstabbing, he's been winning. 

Just like in Korea

The backstabbers win. w

MICA: "This is co-op training."

Communities: *Backstab 100/100, Speech 100/100*

Watch me get backstabbed to hell by everyone so hard that I quit

:Jervaited:

C tomorrow? :ribdieinside:

B may win tomorrow right..?

I need to think about it.

I think I might actually choose C.

I'm already so behind that C victory is the only way I come back. 

Gambler's Fallacy in full effect

I left my boi corsage behind last time, I won't do it again. 

If C is at 31-33% tomorrow, we got this as long as A and B are above 34%. 

One thing I know for sure is that B will not win 2 in a row. 

At worst, B will tie. 

I feel like I got the corona.

I probably don't even have it but I feel like death; I had some pretty bad allergies today so I'm probably at a 10 on the EN scale with how much braincells I lost from sneezing. 

Don't die yet, I need to 1v1 you in VR chat

:oathSing2A:

It's ok, if Kazuki dies, he'll just be revived for the Alicization arc.

A lot of EN died when we unlocked Core 8 today. 

I even included like, five different videos of Core 8 being cleared on a ton of different teams, and somehow people didn't get the memo. 

Your first mistake is assuming EN reads. 

Just put the important parts in 96 point font in CC Wild Words Roman because that's the font they use in thin books

Feels like it's at least partially my fault because even some of you guys missed what I wrote in my guide when I asked for a review. 

EN doesn't read and we play EN, therefore we don't read either. 

Readers, don't be illiterate like us - please read the Core 8 section carefully and look at the videos!

There are many diverse team comps showcased, so find one that works for you. 

Note that this generally requires good equipment and decent fairies/skill levels - do not try if new to the game!

I actually don't know what to vote right now. 

I would have voted C earlier, but there are so many people voting C in Discord right now that it feels like a terrible pick. 

I'm pretty confident C is gonna tank in that predictable zigzag and that we're finally starting to see fake C propaganda from A/B voters.

The problem is how A and B react. This was what I predicted this morning:

First C has to go down that much to match the pattern, then we infer that A must go down because A was neutral and neutral A feels terrible. 

Once we have A and C percentages, we can get B by subtracting the sum from 100%, giving us a big B spike. 

Should I just vote C? 

It's the most risk averse - I agree that C will go down to a percentage where it'll most likely be neutral, but I have no idea how A and B will act and I don't want to risk a massive loss due to a coinflip. 

Makes sense. 

I want to vote A, but the prospect of an A loss is terrible. 15 per drone if the trends don't go 100% as I predict, me losing on A would just end me right there. 

Here's my EN Core 8 video since people kept complaining about me using P22 in my CN clear: 

Day 10 Bets

smh whim, going from C chair to A chair

I'm going all B after this.

See, that's what I did. 

Just gave up and made my bed in B. 

Get out of my bed. 

I would actually be amazed if C won. People ditching C after it goes neutral seems counterintuitive, and defies EN trend so far. 

The EN C trend is such a nice zigzag I would be very remiss to see it go. 

C won two at best on older servers right? So we're just sitting here waiting for that EN magic.

I wonder which VTuber to ask tomorrow.

I should check if there will be a Suisei stream.

Pray for the C win; if it wins, I will do the M1 Garand swimsuit cosplay, even though I may not lose the bet.

:dartboard:

Let's just say I fell asleep and when I woke up I was on the C chair.

I hope Dusk wins.

He wouldn't make me do too unreasonable stuff, right?

right

:springS:

Dude I've been hard throwing last 2 days, don't follow me.

Xecty has more points than me now.

I guess none of us know what we're doing anymore. Hell, there's a plurality C vote, which makes no sense because there's no way C wins tomorrow.  

Remember to send all 93 drones available today to your zone of choice (which may or may not be the same as what we picked), and do your Core clears!

Core 8 is daunting, but should still be possible if you follow the teambuilding guide and have decent units/equips/fairies. There are five videos all showing how to clear it, so watch them and see which one works for you!

For endgame players that just want to maximize their points, each day after the ceasefire, you can always find the TL;DR on what zones are optimal to do for that day at the start of the Theater Guide!

Oh, and don't forget to submit the CBT form every day when you investigate in-game!

Omake

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About the Author(s)

(AKA Nonotan, Discord Cleista#7481)

Guide writer and editor for Girls' Frontline, and one of the few people who like its gameplay more than the gacha. Got MICA to pay me 8000 gems once. 

Send guide suggestions and ideas via DM on Discord, or drop some in the #gf_site_suggestions channel on the Community Discord

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